Natural Hazards

, Volume 89, Issue 3, pp 1307–1325 | Cite as

Flood risk assessment in a coastal lagoon under present and future scenarios: Ria de Aveiro case study

  • Carina L. Lopes
  • Fátima L. Alves
  • João M. Dias
Original Paper
  • 137 Downloads

Abstract

Floods are one of the major threats to low-lying coastal lagoons, affecting people, socio-economic activities and ecosystem services. This work proposes a methodology to assess present and future flood hazard and risk in west-boundary low-lying coastal lagoons, using the Ria de Aveiro (Portugal) as case study. A multidisciplinary approach supported on Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence model combined with a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis was developed and applied. This comprised the following steps: (1) definition of present and future climate scenarios associated with oceanic, fluvial and combined events, combining sea levels and river discharges for different return periods; (2) characterization of flooding pathway through hydrodynamic modelling; (3) assessment of flood hazard combining flood depth and probability from hydrodynamic simulations; (4) assessment of flood risk calculating the adverse consequences on assets exposed to flood hazard. Results highlight that endangered regions are strongly dependent on the floods origin: oceanic floods threaten settlements and economic activities located along the margins of the lagoon main channels as well as habitats in the lagoon central area; fluvial floods endanger the river’s mouth adjacent areas causing damage in restricted settlements, economic activities and farmland habitats; the combined floods also threaten the margins adjacent to the transition zones. For future scenarios, it is predicted the flood risk increase/decrease for oceanic/fluvial events, as a consequence of mean sea level rise/river discharges reduction predicted for the region. Finally, this work demonstrated the value of the methodology proposed and its potential for flood risk analysis, supporting the decision-making process underlying the flood risk management.

Keywords

Ria de Aveiro Hydrodynamic modelling Flood hazard Flood damage Multi-criteria analysis Future scenarios 

Notes

Acknowledgements

Thanks for the financial support to CESAM (UID/AMB/50017/2013), to FCT/MEC through national funds, and the co-funding by the FEDER, within the PT2020 Partnership Agreement and Compete 2020. The first author benefited from a Ph.D. Grant (SFRH/BD/78345/2011) given by the Portuguese Science Foundation FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia). The authors also thank the ADAPTARia project team for the discharge data.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Carina L. Lopes
    • 1
  • Fátima L. Alves
    • 2
  • João M. Dias
    • 1
  1. 1.NMEC – Estuarine and Coastal Modelling Division, Physics Department, CESAM - Centre for Environmental and Marine StudiesUniversity of AveiroAveiroPortugal
  2. 2.G_INTRA – Environmental Instruments Group, Department of Environment and Planning, CESAM - Centre for Environmental and Marine StudiesUniversity of AveiroAveiroPortugal

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