Accounting for spatial correlation in tsunami evacuation destination choice: a case study of the Great East Japan Earthquake
- 577 Downloads
This article analyzes the tsunami evacuation destination choice process, using as a case study the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011. The contribution of this article is twofold. First, it sheds some light on the choice mechanism behind tsunami evacuation destination choice, an understudied aspect of the evacuation process. Second, and from a theoretical perspective, it addresses the issue of spatial correlation in discrete choice models. A spatially correlated logit model is estimated, where the allocation parameter is specified as a function of proximity and inter-zone altitude difference to capture more adequately unobserved similarities among alternatives in the specific context of tsunami evacuation.
KeywordsTsunami Evacuation behavior Destination choice Spatial correlation Great East Japan Earthquake
This study was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant No. 26220906. All spatial data used for the analysis presented in this article were provided by the Reconstruction Support Survey Archive (Fukkō Shien Chōsa Ākaibu) of the Center for Spatial Information Science, the University of Tokyo.
- Baker EJ (1991) Hurricane evacuation behavior. Int J Mass Emerg Disasters 9(2):287–310Google Scholar
- Charnkol T, Hanaoka S, Tanaboriboon Y (2007) Emergency trip destination of evacuation as shelter analysis for tsunami disaster: a case study in Phuket Thailand. J East Asia Soc Transp Stud 7:853–868Google Scholar
- Cheng G (2007) Friction factor functions calibration for hurricane evacuation trip distribution. In: Proceedings from the 86th transportation research board annual meeting, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
- Cheng G, Wilmot C, Baker E (2008) A destination choice model for hurricane evacuation. In: Proceedings from the 87th transportation research board annual meeting, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
- Kesennuma-Motoyoshi Fire Department (2011) Regarding the damage and handling of the Great East Japan Earthquake “東日本大震災における被害と対応について”. Fire and Disaster Management Agency, Kesennuma City (in Japanese) Google Scholar
- UNISDR (2005) Hyogo framework for action 2005–2015: building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters. United Nations Office for Disaster Reduction, GenevaGoogle Scholar
- UNISDR (2015) Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015–2030. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, GenevaGoogle Scholar
- Urata J, Hato E (2013) An analysis of evacuation timing with pre-activities in tsunami disasters. J City Plan Inst Jpn 48(3):52–61Google Scholar