Natural Hazards

, Volume 84, Issue 2, pp 797–807 | Cite as

Accounting for spatial correlation in tsunami evacuation destination choice: a case study of the Great East Japan Earthquake

  • Giancarlos Troncoso ParadyEmail author
  • Eiji Hato
Original Paper


This article analyzes the tsunami evacuation destination choice process, using as a case study the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011. The contribution of this article is twofold. First, it sheds some light on the choice mechanism behind tsunami evacuation destination choice, an understudied aspect of the evacuation process. Second, and from a theoretical perspective, it addresses the issue of spatial correlation in discrete choice models. A spatially correlated logit model is estimated, where the allocation parameter is specified as a function of proximity and inter-zone altitude difference to capture more adequately unobserved similarities among alternatives in the specific context of tsunami evacuation.


Tsunami Evacuation behavior Destination choice Spatial correlation Great East Japan Earthquake 



This study was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant No. 26220906. All spatial data used for the analysis presented in this article were provided by the Reconstruction Support Survey Archive (Fukkō Shien Chōsa Ākaibu) of the Center for Spatial Information Science, the University of Tokyo.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Urban Engineering, Graduate School of EngineeringThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
  2. 2.Department of Civil Engineering, Graduate School of EngineeringThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan

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