Natural Hazards

, Volume 80, Issue 1, pp 539–565 | Cite as

Estimation of increase in storm surge damage due to climate change and sea level rise in the Greater Tokyo area

  • Sayaka Hoshino
  • Miguel EstebanEmail author
  • Takahito Mikami
  • Hiroshi Takagi
  • Tomoya Shibayama
Original Paper


Sea level rise and an increase in typhoon intensity are two of the expected consequences from future climate change. In the present work, a methodology to change the intensity of tropical cyclones in Japan was developed, which can be used to assess the inundation risk to different areas of the country. As a result, the probability of a storm with an equivalent return period in the year 2100 to that of the worst storm in the 20th century overcoming sea defences around Tokyo Bay could be calculated. The risk of higher storm surges, coupled with different sea-level-rise scenarios, highlights how the dykes around Tokyo or Kawasaki could fail unless adaptation measures against climate change are attempted. The cost of adapting to both of these effects by building higher coastal dykes and raising port areas outside them was quantified. Finally, an estimation of the cost of allowing the areas behind the defences to be flooded was also made, clearly showing that the cost of adaptation measures is clearly lower than the cost of inaction.


Storm surge Sustainability of coastal defences Sea level rise Typhoons 



The authors would like to acknowledge the kind comments and contributions to a number of anonymous reviewers, who greatly helped to improve the quality of the final manuscript. All other errors and inconsistencies in the manuscript are the authors’ own.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Sayaka Hoshino
    • 1
  • Miguel Esteban
    • 2
    Email author
  • Takahito Mikami
    • 1
  • Hiroshi Takagi
    • 3
  • Tomoya Shibayama
    • 1
  1. 1.Waseda UniversityShinjuku-ku, TokyoJapan
  2. 2.The University of TokyoKashiwa City, ChibaJapan
  3. 3.Tokyo Institute of TechnologyMeguro-ku, TokyoJapan

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