Natural Hazards

, Volume 75, Issue 3, pp 2577–2587 | Cite as

On the use of AFOSM to estimate major earthquake probabilities in Taiwan

  • J. P. Wang
  • H. Kuo-Chen
Original Paper


Advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) is commonly used to obtain an upper-bound estimate for a probabilistic analysis. This study presents a new AFOSM application to engineering seismology, estimating major earthquake probabilities based on fault length and slip rate, along with an earthquake empirical model subject to a model error of 0.26 M w. The AFOSM analysis shows that the probability could be as high as 64 % for a major earthquake in northern Taiwan to exceed M w 7.0, considering the length and slip rate of the Sanchiao fault are equal to 36 km and 2 ± 1 mm per year. By contrast, the other case study shows that for the Meishan fault in central Taiwan, the probability is “only” 4 % for earthquake magnitude to exceed M w 7.0, given a shorter fault length of 14 km and a larger slip rate of 6 ± 3 mm per year.


AFOSM Earthquake probability Taiwan 


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringHong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST)Hong KongChina
  2. 2.Department of Earth SciencesNational Central UniversityTaiwanRepublic of China

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