Determination of the distribution of flood forecasting error
- 454 Downloads
Flood forecasting plays an essential role in enhancing the safety of residents downstream and preventing or reducing economic losses. One critical issue in flood risk assessment is the determination of the probability distribution of forecast errors. Several investigations, which have been carried out to analyze the influence of the uncertainty in real-time operation or water resources management, assumed that the relative forecast error was approximately normally distributed. This study investigates whether the flood forecast error follows the normal distribution. Several distributions were fitted to the flood error series, and their performances were analyzed using the data from Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) and Muma River. Then, the most appropriate distribution was selected. Results show that the assumption of normal distribution is not justified for the flood forecast error series of TGR and Muma River. The use of normal distribution for estimating flood risk may lead to incorrect results.
KeywordsFlood forecasting error Probability distribution function Three Gorges Reservoir Muma River
The project was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC Grant 51309104, 51209221), Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR-SKL-201408), Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province (No. 2013CFB184) and Wuhan Planning Project of Science and Technology (2014060101010064).
- Bergström S (1992) The HBV model—its structure and applications. SMHI Reports RH No. 4, NorrköpingGoogle Scholar
- Christensen S (2003) A synthetic ground water modelling study of the accuracy of GLUE uncertainty intervals. Nord Hydrol 35(1):45–59Google Scholar
- Diao YF, Wang BD, Liu J (2007) Study on distribution of flood forecasting errors by the method based on maximum entropy. J Hydraul Eng 38(5):591–595Google Scholar
- Lindström G (1997) A simple automatic calibration routine for the HBV model. Nord Hydrol 28(3):153–168Google Scholar
- Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) (2006) Regulation for calculating design flood of water resources and hydropower projects. Chinese ShuiliShuidian Press, Beijing (in Chinese)Google Scholar
- Stedinger JR, Vogel RM, Lee SU, Batchelder R (2008) Appraisal of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. Water Resour Res 44:W00B06Google Scholar
- Zhao RJ, Zhang YL, Fang LR (1980) The Xinanjiang model. Paper presented at Hydrological Forecasting Proceeding Oxford Symposium, IASH-AISH Publ. no. 129, Washington, pp. 351–356Google Scholar