Advertisement

Natural Hazards

, Volume 70, Issue 2, pp 1631–1659 | Cite as

Natural hazard chain research in China: A review

  • Lifen Xu
  • Xiangwei Meng
  • Xuegong Xu
Review Article

Abstract

Most catastrophic disasters are triggered by multi-hazards that occur simultaneously or sequentially rather than singly; this can result in more severe consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the occurrence, development, and transformation of hazard chains and comprehend their rules in order to predict secondary hazards. An effective action for reducing potential losses can be taken to block a hazard chain before it expands and transforms. Many studies have been conducted on hazard chains, some of which are of great significance. This article is a comprehensive literature review on hazard chains. First, an introduction to the definition, classification, and recognition of hazard chains is given. Then, some typical researches on mechanical studies of geological hazard chains, meteorological hazard, chains and geological–meteorological hazard chains are presented. On the basis of case studies on hazard chains, the following comprehensive methodologies are summarized: (1) engineering geology methodology, (2) integrated geographical assessment methodology, (3) system dynamics methodology, and (4) methodology of disaster physics. Reconstruction as a part of the disaster process is also reviewed. However, the research presented is still in the beginning stage; neither the mechanics nor the methodology is finalized. Research on hazard chains still has a long way to go.

Keywords

Hazard chain Definition Classification Recognition Mechanism Methodology 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This paper has been financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (NSFC) Project (No. 41271102, No. 40830746). Thanks to Dr. Xiaofeng Duan, who gave many useful suggestions and comments to the modification of this paper.

References

  1. Ahmad S, Simonovic SP (2004) Spatial system dynamics: new approach for simulation of water resources systems. J Comput Civil Eng 18(4):331–340CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Arnone E, Noto LV, Lepore C et al (2011) Physically-based and distributed approach to analyze rainfall-triggered landslides at watershed scale. Geomorphology 133(3–4):121–131CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bian RT, He JM, Zhuang YM (2011) Modeling spreading activity of emergency events chain based on complex network. Stat Decis 4:22–24Google Scholar
  4. Bishop AW (1955) The use of slip circle in the stability analysis of slopes. Geotech Lond 5(1):7–11CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Burbidge D, Cummins PR, Mleczko R et al (2008) A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Western Australia. Pure Appl Geophys 165:2059–2088CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Callaghan WM, Rasmussen SA, Jamiseon DJ et al (2007) Health concerns of women and infants in times of natural disasters: lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina. Matern Child Health J 11:307–311Google Scholar
  7. Camuffo D, Sturaro G (2004) Use of proxy-documentary and instrumental data to assess the risk factors leading to sea flooding in Venice. Global Planet Change 40(1–2):93–103CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Cao WC, Tao HP, Liu BT et al (2011) Comprehensive assessment of secondary geological disaster risk caused by Wenchuan earthquake: taking Chongzhou city as an example. Chin J Ecol 1(1):170–176Google Scholar
  9. Chang KT, Chiang SH, Hsu ML (2007) Modeling typhoon- and earthquake-induced landslides in a mountainous watershed using logistic regression. Geomorphology 89(3–4):335–347CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chang DS, Zhang LM, Xu Y et al (2009) Analysis of overtopping failure of Hongshihe landslide dam after Wenchuan earthquake. J Eng Geol 17(1):50–55Google Scholar
  11. Chen CK, Sun YF, Li Z (2009) Characteristic analysis of evolution and derivation chain of risk events caused by snow and ice disaster. J Catastrophol 24(1):18–21Google Scholar
  12. Chen BB, Li HY, Wu Y (2011a) A review on rebuilding theory of “Wenchuan” earthquake. Urban Stud 3:105–111Google Scholar
  13. Chen XQ, Zhao WY, Gao Q et al (2011b) Experimental research on effect of man-made structure controlling dam-break flood. J Mt Sci 29(2):217–225Google Scholar
  14. Cheung KF, Phadke AC, Wei Y et al (2003) Modeling of storm-induced coastal flooding for emergency management. Ocean Eng 30(11):1353–1386CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Cremonesi M, Frangi A, Perego U (2011) A Lagrangian finite element approach for the simulation of water-waves induced by landslides. Comput Struct 89(11–12):1086–1093CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Cui P, Han YS, Chen XQ (2009) Distribution and risk analysis of dammed lakes reduced by Wenchuan earthquake. J Sichuan Univ (Engineering Science Edition) 41(3):35–42Google Scholar
  17. Cui P, Chen XQ et al (2011) The Wenchuan earthquake (May 12, 2008), Sichuan Province, China, and resulting geo-hazards. Nat Hazards 56(1):19–36CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Dahal RK, Hasegawa S (2008) Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya. Geomorphology 100(3–4):429–443CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Dai FC, Lee CF, Deng JH et al (2005) The 1786 earthquake-triggered landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood on the Dadu River, southwestern China. Geomorphology 65(3–4):205–221CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Dong LL (2009) Modeling emergency events chain based on Bayesian networks. Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, Master thesisGoogle Scholar
  21. Fan JR, Tian BW, Cheng GW et al (2008) Investigation on damming object induced by the earthquake of Wenchuan on May 12 based on multi-platform remote sensing. J Mt Sci 26(3):257–262Google Scholar
  22. Fang YP (2008) On the nine key relations of reconstruction after Wenchuan earthquake. J Mt Sci 26(04):390–395Google Scholar
  23. FEMA (2006) Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf Coast (FEMA 549). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  24. Feng WK, Huang RQ, Xu Q et al (2009) Study on formation mechanism and deformation failure models of shatter slopes. Hydrogeol Eng Geol 6:42–48Google Scholar
  25. Gao QH (1991) The system theory of natural disasters. Sci Technol Rev 2:51–54Google Scholar
  26. Gao ZN, Yao LK, Xu GX et al (2007) Researches on evolution of sliding surface with pattern dynamics. Chin J Geotech Eng 29(6):866–871Google Scholar
  27. Gao XL, Chen T, Fan J (2010) Population capacity in the Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction areas. Acta Geographica Sinica 65(02):164–176Google Scholar
  28. Geng QG (1985) Relationship between drought and earthquake in China. China Ocean Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  29. Geng QG (1997) Review on group-occurrence and chain-occurrence effect. In: The 13th academic annual conference of the Chinese Geophysical Society in 1997, ShanghaiGoogle Scholar
  30. Guo ZJ (1997) Comprehensive geophysical study on natural disaster prediction in China. Chin J Geophys S1:411–419Google Scholar
  31. Guo ZJ, Qin BY (1987) Brief discussion on disaster physics. J Catastrophol 2:25–33Google Scholar
  32. Guo ZJ, Qin BY (1988a) The methodology of disaster physics (I). J Catastrophol 2:9–17Google Scholar
  33. Guo ZJ, Qin BY (1988b) The methodology of disaster physics (II). J Catastrophol 4:1–10Google Scholar
  34. Guo ZJ, Qin BY, Guo AN (2006) Study on incompatible chain of disasters. J Catastrophol 21(3):20–21Google Scholar
  35. Guo ZJ, Guo AN, Zhou KX et al. (2007a) Geophysical disaster chain. Xi’an Sino-Maps Press, Xi’an, China Google Scholar
  36. Guo ZJ, Guo AH, Zhang Y (2007b) Relationship between the catastrophic storm tide in Bangladesh and large earthquake in Yunnan of China and in Myanmar. J Catastrophol 22(3):22–23Google Scholar
  37. Guo ZJ, Han YB, Guo AN (2007c) Discussion on the middle term prediction of the Pu’er earthquake Ms 6.4 in Yunnan Province on June 3, 2007 by geophysical disaster chain. Recent Dev World Seismol 342(6):1–4Google Scholar
  38. Han JL, Wu SR, Wang HB (2007) Preliminary study on geological hazard chains. Earth Sci Front 14(6):11–23CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Han Y, Liu H et al (2009) Hazard assessment on secondary mountain-hazards triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake. J Appl Remote Sens 3(1):031645CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. He MC (2008) Experiment on earthquake-snow disaster chain of South China/new theory and idea salon 16: spreading process, prediction methods and decision making of catastrophic disaster chain. China Association for Science and Technology, Beijing, pp 17–20Google Scholar
  41. He KQ, An ZY (1996) A preliminary analysis on the forming conditions and the forming types of debris flow caused by landslides and falls. J Hebei Geol Coll 19(3–4):344–351Google Scholar
  42. Helbing D, Ammoser H, Kühnert C (2006) Disasters as extreme events and the importance of network interactions for disaster response management, in extreme events in nature and society. Springer, Berlin, pp 319–348Google Scholar
  43. Hewitt K, Burton I (1971) Hazardousness of a place: a regional ecology of damaging events. Toronto Press, TorontoGoogle Scholar
  44. Hou Q (2008) Geographical earthquake and flood disaster chain//new theory and idea salon 16: spreading process, prediction methods and decision making of catastrophic disaster chain. China Association for Science and Technology, Beijing, pp 73–76Google Scholar
  45. Hu YZ (2008) Theory and practice of post-disaster recovery planning: A case study of New Orleans recovery and its implications for Wenchuan earthquake recovery. Urban Plan Int 04:66–70Google Scholar
  46. Hu YL, Wei J, Ren CA, et al. (2006) Discussion on the causing ageuey equivalence of geological hazard their forcasti—an example of Shandong Province. Chin J Geol Hazard Control 17(2): 119–122, 129Google Scholar
  47. Hu XW, Huang RQ, Shi YB et al (2009) Analysis of blocking river mechanism of Tangjiashan landslide and dam-breaking mode of its barrier dam. Chin J Rock Mech Eng 28(1):181–189Google Scholar
  48. Huang RQ (2004) Mechanism of large scale landslide in western China. Adv Earth Sci 19(3):443–450Google Scholar
  49. Huang CF (2006) Role of integrated risk management, framework design and study on risk analysis of polymorphic disaster chain. J Basic Sci Eng 14(S1):29–37Google Scholar
  50. Huang RQ, Li WL (2009) Fault effect analysis of geo-hazard triggered by Wenchuan earthquake. J Eng Geol 1:19–28Google Scholar
  51. Ji SY, Deng MS (2006) Avalanche dynamics on complex network. J Guizhou Educ Inst (Natural Science Edition) 17(2):31–35Google Scholar
  52. Jiang J, Wu LD, Xu JB (2009) Digital earth based flood routing model visualization. Comput Eng Appl 45(36):1–4Google Scholar
  53. Jiménez JA, Sancho-García A, Bosom E et al (2012) Storm-induced damages along the catalan coast (nw mediterranean) during the period 1958–2008. Geomorphology 143–144:24–33CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Kagan YY, Jackson DD (2012) Tohoku earthquake: a surprise? arXiv: 1112.5217v2 [physics. Geo-ph]:1–51Google Scholar
  55. Kappes M (2011) Multi-hazard risk analyses: a concept and its implementation. PhD thesis, University of ViennaGoogle Scholar
  56. Karnopp D, Rosenberg R, Perelson AS (1976) System dynamics: a unified approach. Syst Man Cybern IEEE Trans 10:724CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Keefer, DK (1984). Landslides caused by earthquakes. Geol Soc Am Bull 95:406–421Google Scholar
  58. Keefer DK (2002) Investigating landslides caused by earthquakes–a historical review. Surv Geophys 23(6):473–510CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Kokusho T, Ishizawa T, Nishida K (2009) Travel distance of failed slopes during 2004 Chuetsu earthquake and its evaluation in terms of energy. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 29(7):1159–1169CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Kokusho T, Ishizawa T, Koizumi K (2011) Energy approach to seismically induced slope failure and its application to case histories. Eng Geol 122(1–2):115–128CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Lan DX (2011) A comparative study of characteristics of post-earthquake reconstructions abroad and the experience of “5.12″ post-earthquake reconstructions in China. J Chengdu Univ (Social Sciences) 04:6–8Google Scholar
  62. Li XZ, Kong JM, Deng HY et al (2009) Analysis on characteristics and deformation failure mode of large-scale landslides induced by “5·12”Wenchuan earthquake. J Sichuan Univ (Engineering Science Edition) 41(3):72–77Google Scholar
  63. Li XZ, Kong JM, Cui Y et al (2010) Statistical relations between landslides induced by Wenchuan earthquake and earthquake parameters, geological as well as geomorphological factors. J Eng Geol 18(1):8–14Google Scholar
  64. Lu YR (2008) Prevention of geological disasters and security of city. Liberation Daily, 06–29 (008). http://www.news365.com.cn/wxpd/jy/jyt/200806/t20080630_1929652.htm
  65. Lu HF, Jia D, Wang LS et al (2008) On the triggering mechanics of Wenchuan earthquake. Geol J China Univ 14(2):133–138Google Scholar
  66. Luino F (2005) Sequence of instability processes triggered by heavy rainfall in the northern Italy. Geomorphology 66(1–4):13–39CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Luo HM, Tang HM, Hu B et al (2007) Rigid limit equilibrium method considering seismic force and its application. Chin J Rock Mech Eng 26(S1):3591–3595 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  68. Ma ZJ, Gao QH (1990) A tentative discussion on system engineering of natural disaster reduction. J Catastrophol 2:1–7Google Scholar
  69. Madsen H, Jakobsen F (2004) Cyclone induced storm surge and flood forecasting in the northern Bay of Bengal. Coast Eng 51(4):277–296Google Scholar
  70. Men KP, Gao JG (2008) Severe disaster chain and its defense. Prog Geophys 23(1):270–275Google Scholar
  71. Mendoza ET, Jiménez JA (2006) Storm-induced beach erosion potential on the catalonian coast. J Coast Res SI 48:81–88Google Scholar
  72. Miao HQ, Liu HP, Fan JS et al (2008) Secondary disasters, hazard chain and the curing in Wenchuan earthquake-hit area, west China. J Geol Hazards Environ Preserv 19(4):1–5Google Scholar
  73. Nicholls RJ, Hoozemans F, Marchand M (1999) Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses G-3898-2010. Global Environ Change Hum Policy Dimens 9S:S69–S87CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Okal EA, Borrero JC, Chague-Goff C (2011) Tsunamigenic predecessors to the 2009 samoa earthquake. Earth Sci Rev 107(1-2SI):128–140CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Phadke AC, Martino CD, Cheung KF et al (2003) Modeling of tropical cyclone winds and waves for emergency management. Ocean Eng 30(4):553–578CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. Provitolo D (2009) Structural and dynamical complexities of risk and catastrophe systems: an approach by System Dynamics Modelling. In: Bertelle C et al (eds) Complex systems and self-organization modelling. Springer, 129–138Google Scholar
  77. Qi DX (2010) System dynamics model of the erosion and deposition evolution of the Yellow River Mouth. Chinese University of Petroleum, Master’s thesis, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  78. Ranasinghe R, Callaghan D, Stive MJF (2012) Estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise: beyond the Bruun rule. Climatic Change Volume 110(3–4):561–574CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Rodríguez CE, Bommer JJ, Chandler RJ (1999) Earthquake-induced landslides: 1980–1997. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 18(5):325–346CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. Rong LL, Zhang JY (2010) A case study on chain reaction of emergency event based on snow storm disaster in southern China in early. J Catastrophol 25(1):1–6Google Scholar
  81. Saaty TL (1980) The analytic hierarchy process. McGraw-Hill, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  82. Sea Engineering, Inc. (2002) Validation of a model package for storm-induced coastal flooding. Report prepared for the University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HawaiiGoogle Scholar
  83. Shen QJ, Ma JW (2008) Retrospect, analysis and thinking on post-earthquake reconstruction planning of Tangshan City. Urban Plan Forum 04:17–28Google Scholar
  84. Shi PJ (1991) Theory and practice of disaster study. J Nanjing Univ 11:37–42Google Scholar
  85. Shi PJ (2002) Theory on disaster science and disaster dynamics. J Nanjing Univ 11(3):1–9Google Scholar
  86. Shi PJ (2009) Theory and practice on disaster system research in a fifth time. J Nanjing Univ 18(5):1–9Google Scholar
  87. Song XG, Pang MC, Wang XL et al (2008) The policy framework and system of reconstruction after natural catastrophes: A case study of Wenchuan earthquake. Res Finan Econ Issues 09:10–18Google Scholar
  88. Stanczak G, Oumeraci H (2011) Modeling sea dike breaching induced by breaking wave impact-laboratory experiments and computational model. Coast Eng 59(1):28–37CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  89. Teng WX, Wang Q, Xia JW (2010) Research on regionally integrated emergency response system. J Soc Sci 7(63–68):189Google Scholar
  90. Violette S, Boulicot G, Gorelick SM (2009) Tsunami-induced groundwater salinization in southeastern India. CR Geosci 341(4):339–346CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  91. Wang QF (1985) Theory and application of system dynamics (I). Robot 6:53–55Google Scholar
  92. Wang QF (1986) Theory and application of system dynamics (II). Robot 1:46–49Google Scholar
  93. Wang D (2010) Network model of emergency events based on correlation. Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, Master thesisGoogle Scholar
  94. Wang J, Ling HI (2011) Developing a risk assessment model for typhoon-triggered debris flows. J Mt Sci 8(1):10–23CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  95. Wang JW, Rong LL (2008) Research on chain-reacting network model of emergency events. Appl Res Comput 25(11):3288–3291Google Scholar
  96. Wang JD, Bai MX, Xiao SF (2001) A study on compound mechanism of earthquake-related sliding displacements on gently inclined loess slope. Chin J Geotech Eng 23(4):445–449Google Scholar
  97. Wang GQ, Zhong DY, Zhang HW et al (2008) Numerical simulation of discharge process of Tangjiashan dammed lakedammed lakedammed lake induced by Wenchuan earthquake. Chin Sci Bull 53(24):3127–3133Google Scholar
  98. Wang CZ, Chen GJ, Tan RZ, et al. (2009) Preliminary study on the secondary mountain disaster chains induced by Wenchuan earthquake. J Sichuan Univ (Engineering Science Edition) 41(S1):84–88Google Scholar
  99. Wang YS, Gou FG, Chen N, et al. (2011) The genetic condition research of hazard chains of Wenchuan earthquake in Shikan River of Pingwu County. J Eng Geol 19(S1):132–140Google Scholar
  100. Wang J, Gao W, Xu S et al (2012) Evaluation of the combined risk of sea level rise, land subsidence, and storm surges on the coastal areas of shanghai, China. Clim Change 115(3–4):537–558CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  101. Warner NN, Tissot PE (2012) Storm flooding sensitivity to sea level rise for Galveston bay, texas. Ocean Eng 44:23–32CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  102. Wei YM, Zhang LP, Fan Y (2002) Swarm based study on complexity in flood disaster. J Manag Sci China 5(6):39–46Google Scholar
  103. Wen CJ (1994) On atmospheric disaster chain. J Catastrophol 9(3):1–5Google Scholar
  104. Weng WB (1981) Commensurability. Chin J Geophys 2:151–154Google Scholar
  105. Weng WG, Ni SJ, Shen SF et al (2007) Dynamics of disaster spreading in complex networks. Acta Physical Sinica 56(4):1938–1943Google Scholar
  106. Xia NK, Song HY (2008) An analysis on and countermeasures for risk issues for cities and villages rebuilding after the Wenchuan earthquake. Urban Plan Forum 04:11–16Google Scholar
  107. Xiao SX (2006) Theory and application of disaster chain-style. Science Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  108. Xiao SX, Feng YT, Wang ZH, et al. (2006) Shape characteristics of evolvement in chain-styled phases of disasters. Chin J Rock Mech Eng 25(S1):2629–2633Google Scholar
  109. Xie CN (2010) Risk assessment and scenario simulation of storm surge in Shanghai coastal areas. East China Normal University, Shanghai, Master’s thesisGoogle Scholar
  110. Xu C, Dai FC, Yao X, et al. (2009) GIS-based landslide susceptibility assessment using analytical hierarchy process in Wenchuan earthquake region. Chin J Rock Mech Eng 28(S2):3978–3985Google Scholar
  111. Xu C, Dai FC, Yao X, et al. (2010) GIS based certainty factor analysis of landslide triggering factors in Wenchuan earthquake. Chin J Rock Mech Eng 29(S1):2972–2981Google Scholar
  112. Xu MZ, Wang ZY, Qi LJ (2012) Disaster chains initiated by the Wenchuan earthquake. J Mt Sci 30(4):502–512Google Scholar
  113. Yao QL (2007) Field effect and regional conversion as the mechanism of natural hazard chains. Meteorol Disaster Reduct Res 30(3):31–36Google Scholar
  114. Yasuhara K, Komine H, Murakami S et al (2011) Effects of climate change on geo-disasters in coastal zones and their adaptation. Geotext Geomembr 1(11):1–11Google Scholar
  115. Yin J, Yu D, Yin Z et al (2013) Modelling the combined impacts of sea-level rise and land subsidence on storm tides induced flooding of the Huangpu river in shanghai, China. Clim Change 119(3–4):919–932CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  116. Zeng GC, Wang AY (1995) Modeling debris flow based on system dynamic. Appl Res Comput 12(004):31–33Google Scholar
  117. Zhang N (2009) Landslide risk assessment based on multi-source remote sensing data. Central South University, Changsha, Master’s thesisGoogle Scholar
  118. Zhang EY, Zhou AG, Wen DG et al (2009) Geological safety evaluation for Wenchuan earthquake severe hit area in Sichuan Province. Hydrogeol Eng Geol 4:108–111Google Scholar
  119. Zhang WH, Wang J, Sun LZ et al (2011) Disaster system and catastrophic dynamics. Science Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  120. Zhao B (2008) The reconstruction experience of Japanese and implications for us. J Southwest Univ Natly (Humanities and Social Science) 09:33–35Google Scholar
  121. Zhao HP (2010) The transforming mechanism of disaster chain/earth sciences edit committee. 1000 scientific problems (Volume of earth sciences). Science Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  122. Zhao Z, Cheng JF, Gu X (2009) The suggestions concerning about the reconstruction after 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake. Ecol Econ 02:183–186Google Scholar
  123. Zheng DW (2008) Agricultural disaster chain (network) and approach to risk controlling of China/new theory and idea salon 16: spreading process, prediction methods and decision making of catastrophic disaster chain. China Association for Science and Technology, Beijing, pp 137–159Google Scholar
  124. Zhou J, Ma SC, Zhao WF (2008) Analysis on disaster chains of urban lifeline system in heavy snow-freezing weather. J Catastrophol 23(4):39–44Google Scholar
  125. Zhu PY, Wang CH, Tang BX (2000) The deposition characteristic of supper debris flow in Tibet. J Mt Res 18(5):453–456Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences & Laboratory for Earth Surface Process of Ministry of EducationPeking UniversityBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations