Natural Hazards

, Volume 64, Issue 2, pp 1475–1490

Regional attributes of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment

  • Youn Kyung Song
  • Jennifer L. Irish
  • Ikpoto E. Udoh
Original Paper

Abstract

Accurate quantification of hurricane surge probabilities is critically important for coastal planning and design. Recently, the joint probability method has been shown to yield statistically reliable surge probabilities and has quickly become the method of choice for extreme-value surge analysis in the United States. A main disadvantage of the joint probability method is the requirement to have accurate computational surge simulations for a large array of hurricane conditions. Recently, this shortcoming has been overcome by using a variety of interpolation schemes to reduce the number of surge simulations required to an optimal sample for joint probability analysis. One interpolation scheme uses response functions, or physically based dimensionless scaling laws, that consider the relative impact of hurricane landfall position, central pressure, and storm size on surge magnitude at the location of interest. Here, the influence of regional changes in bathymetry on the physically based response function form is investigated. It will be shown that the influence of continental shelf width on surge generation along a continuous coast is coupled with the influence of storm size and that this coupled physical effect can be treated within the response functions via dimensionless scaling. The surge response function model presented here has an algebraic form for rapid calculation. This model performs well for the entire 600-km Texas coast, yielding accurate surge estimates (root-mean-square errors less than 0.22 m and R2 correlations better than 0.97) with virtually no bias (mean error magnitudes less than 0.03 m).

Keywords

Storm surge Coastal flooding Tropical cyclones Hurricanes Risk assessment 

List of symbols

JPM-OS

Joint probability method with optimal sampling

NOAA

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

PBL

Planetary boundary layer

SLR

Sea-level rise

SRF

Surge response function

H

Heaviside function where H(y) = 1 when y ≥ 0 and H(y) = 0 when y < 0

L30

Cross-shore distance between the shoreline and the 30-m depth contour

Pfar

Far-field barometric pressure

Rp

Hurricane pressure radius near landfall

Rthres

Threshold value of Rp

TR

Return period

c

Dimensionless regional scaling constant

cp

Hurricane central pressure near landfall

cp-max

Constant minimum possible hurricane central pressure based on a maximum possible intensity argument

a1, a2, b1, b2

Location-dependent dimensionless scaling coefficients

g

Gravitational acceleration

m, m2

Location-dependent dimensionless scaling coefficients

p

Probability density function

p1, p2, p3, p4, q1, q2, q3, q4

Dimensionless model fit coefficients

vf

Hurricane forward speed near landfall

x

Location of interest measured on an axis running alongshore

xo

x at the hurricane landfall position

xpeak

x at location of highest alongshore maximum surge

x

Dimensionless alongshore function

α, β

Location-dependent dimensionless scaling coefficients

ε

Epistemic uncertainty in the surge response

ζ

Maximum hurricane surge at location of interest

ζ′

Dimensionless maximum hurricane surge

θ

Hurricane track angle with respect to the shoreline

λ

Ratio between relative alongshore position of highest surge and storm pressure radius

ρ

Water density

ϕ

Continuous SRF

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Youn Kyung Song
    • 1
  • Jennifer L. Irish
    • 2
  • Ikpoto E. Udoh
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Civil EngineeringTexas A&M UniversityCollege StationUSA
  2. 2.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringVirginia TechBlacksburgUSA

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