Advertisement

Natural Hazards

, Volume 66, Issue 3, pp 1501–1518 | Cite as

Changes in North Sea storm surge conditions for four transient future climate realizations

  • Lidia Gaslikova
  • Iris Grabemann
  • Nikolaus Groll
Original Paper

Abstract

Storm surges in the North Sea are one of the threats for coastal infrastructure and human safety. Under an anthropogenic climate change, the threat of extreme storm surges may be enlarged due to changes in the wind climate. Possible future storm surge climates based on transient simulations (1961–2100) are investigated with a hydrodynamical model for the North Sea. The climate change scenarios are based on regionalized meteorological conditions with the regional climate model CCLM which is forced by AR4 climate simulations with the general circulation model ECHAM5/MPIOM under two IPCC emission scenarios (SRES A1B and B1) and two initial conditions. Possible sea level rise in the North Sea is not taken into account. The analysis of future wind-induced changes of the water levels is focused on extreme values. Special emphasis is given to the southeastern North Sea (German Bight). Comparing the 30-year averages of the annual 99 percentiles of the wind-induced water levels between the four climate realizations and the respective control climates, a small tendency toward an increase is inferred for all climate change realizations toward the end of the twenty-first century. Concerning the German Bight, the climate change signals are higher for the North Frisian coastal areas than for the East Frisian ones. This is consistent with an increase in frequency of strong westerly winds. Considering the whole time series (1961–2100) for selected areas, this tendency is superimposed with strong decadal fluctuations. It is found that uncertainties are related not only to the used models and emission scenarios but also to the initial conditions pointing to the internal natural variability.

Keywords

Climate change Storm surge heights Extreme events North Sea 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to H. Kapitza and E.M.I. Meyer for assistance with the TRIM-NP model and to Ms. Gardeike for assistance with the graphics. The investigation was partly supported in the context of the joint projects A-KÜST in KLIFF (Förderkennzeichen VWZN2455, Az. 99-22/07) and KLIMZUG-NORD (Förderkennzeichen 01LR0805I).

References

  1. Beniston M, Stephenson DB, Christensen OB, Ferro CAT, Frei C, et al (2007) Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Clim Change 81:71–95 doi: 10.1007/s10,584-006-9226-z Google Scholar
  2. Brown JM, Wolf J, Souza AJ (2010) Surge modelling in the eastern irish sea: present and future storm impact. Ocean Dyn 60:227–236. doi: 10.1007/s10,236-009-0248-8 Google Scholar
  3. Brown JM, Souza AJ, Wolf J (2011) Past to future extreme events in Liverpool Bay: model projections from 1960-2100. Clim Change. doi: 10.1007/s10,584-011-0145-2
  4. Casulli V, Cattani E (1994) Stability, accuracy and efficiency of a semi-implicit method for three-dimensional shallow water flow. Comput Math Appl 27(4):99–112CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Debernard JB, Røed LP (2008) Future wind, wave and storm surge climate in the Northern Seas: a revisit. Tellus 60:427–438. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00,312.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Debernard JB, Sætra Ø, Røed LP (2002) Future wind, wave and storm surge climate in the Northern Seas. Climate Res 23:39–49CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Hollweg H, Böhm U, Fast I, Hennemuth B, Keuler K, Keup-Thiel E, Lautenschlager M, Legutke S, Radtke K, Rockel B, Schubert M, Will A, Woldt M, Wunram C (2008) Ensemble simulations over Europe with the regional climate model CLM forced with IPCC AR4 global scenarios. Technical report 3, Support for Climate- and Earth System Research at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, ISSN 1619–2257Google Scholar
  8. Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 881 ppGoogle Scholar
  9. Howard T, Lowe J, Horsburgh K (2010) Interpreting century-scale changes in southern North Sea storm surge climate derived from coupled model simulations. J Climate 23:6234–6247. doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3520.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Kapitza H (2008) Mops: a morphodynamical prediction system on cluster computers. In: Laginha JM, Palma M, Amestoy PR, Dayde M, Mattoso M, Lopez J (eds) High performance computing for computational science-VECPAR 2008, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Springer, pp 63–68Google Scholar
  11. Kapitza H, Eppel DP (2000) Simulating morphodynamical processes on a parallel system. In: Spaulding ML, Butler HL (eds) Estuarine and coastal modeling. American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, pp 1182–1191Google Scholar
  12. Lionello P, Nizzero A, Elvini E (2003) A procedure for estimating wind waves and storm-surge climate scenarios in a regional basin: the Adriatic Sea case. Climate Res 23:217–231CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Lowe JA, Gregory JM (2005) The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom. Phil Trans Roy Soc A 363:1313–1328CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Lyard F, Lefevre F, Letellier T, Francis O (2006) Modelling the global ocean tides: modern insights from FES2004. Ocean Dyn 56:394–415CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Marsland SJ, Haak H, Jungclaus JH, Latif M, Röske F (2003) The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Model 5:91–127CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group 3 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 599 ppGoogle Scholar
  17. Pinto JG, Ulbrich U, Leckebusch GC, Spangehl T, Reyers M, Zacharis S (2007) Changes in the storm track and cyclone activity in the three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Clim Dyn 29:195–210. doi: 10.1007/s00,382-007-0230-4 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Rockel B, Will A, Hense A (eds) (2008) Special issue regional climate modeling with COSMO-CLM (CCLM), vol 17. Met. ZeitschriftGoogle Scholar
  19. Röckner E, Bäuml G, Bonaventura L, Brokopf R, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Hagemann, Kirchner I, Kornblueh L, Manzini E, Rhodin A, Schlese U, Schulzweida U, Tompkins A (2003) The atmospheric general circulation model echam5. Part i: model description. Mpi-rep 349, Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyGoogle Scholar
  20. Sterl A, van den Brink H, de Vries H, Haarsma R, van Meijgaard E (2009) An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate. Ocean Sci 5:369–378CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Weidemann H (2009) Statistisch regionalisierte Sturmflutszenarien für Cuxhaven. Diploma Thesis, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, 99 pagesGoogle Scholar
  22. Weisse R, Pluess A (2006) Storm-related sea level variations along the north sea coast as simulated by a high-resolution model 1958–2002. Ocean Dyn 26:16–25CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Weisse R, von Storch H, Callies U, Chrastansky A, Feser F, Grabemann I, Günther H, Plüss A, Stoye T, Tellkamp J, Winterfeldt J, Woth K (2009) Regional meteorological-marine reanalysis and climate change projections. Results for northern Europe and potential for coastal and offshore applications. Bull Am Met Soc 90(6):849–860. doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2713.1 Google Scholar
  24. Weisse R, von Storch H, Niemeyer HD, Knaack H (2011) Changing north sea storm surge climate: an increasing hazard? Ocean Coast Manage. doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2011.09.005
  25. Woth K (2005) North Sea storm surge statistics based on projections in a warmer climate: How important are the driving GCM and the chosen emission scenario? Geophys Res Lett 32: L22,708 doi: 10.1029/2005GL023,762
  26. Woth K, Weisse R, von Storch H (2006) Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models. Ocean Dyn 56(1):3–15. doi: 10.1007/s10,236-005-0024-3 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Lidia Gaslikova
    • 1
  • Iris Grabemann
    • 1
  • Nikolaus Groll
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Coastal ResearchHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materials and Coastal ResearchGeesthachtGermany

Personalised recommendations