Natural Hazards

, Volume 61, Issue 2, pp 673–687 | Cite as

Model for prediction of sea dike breaching initiated by breaking wave impact

Original Paper


A computational model system is proposed for the prediction of sea dike breaching initiated from the seaward side by breaking wave impact with the focus on the application of the model system for the estimation failure probability of the defence structure. The described model system is built using a number of existing models for the calculation of grass, clay, and sand erosion. The parameters identified as those having the most significant influence on the estimation of the failure have been described stochastically. Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainties of the relevant input parameters and the model itself have been performed and the probabilities of the breach initiation and of the full dike breaching have been calculated. This will form the basis to assess the coastal flood risk due to dike breaching.


Coastal floods Sea dikes breaching Uncertainty analysis Monte Carlo simulation 



The financial support of the German Research Foundation (DFG) within the International Graduate College IGC802 is gratefully acknowledged. This research is also a part of the FLOODsite project (Contract Number: GOCE-CT-2004-505420).


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Hydraulic EngineeringWestpomeranian University of TechnologySzczecinPoland
  2. 2.Leichtweiß, Institute of Hydraulic EngineeringBraunschweigGermany

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