Natural Hazards

, Volume 60, Issue 2, pp 727–745 | Cite as

Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York

  • Christine C. ShepardEmail author
  • Vera N. Agostini
  • Ben Gilmer
  • Tashya Allen
  • Jeff Stone
  • William Brooks
  • Michael W. Beck
Original Paper


Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities in the future.


Storm surge Risk Social vulnerability Sea level rise 



We thank Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR) for the provision of data sets. This work was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation and The Nature Conservancy.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Christine C. Shepard
    • 1
    Email author
  • Vera N. Agostini
    • 2
  • Ben Gilmer
    • 3
  • Tashya Allen
    • 4
  • Jeff Stone
    • 5
  • William Brooks
    • 4
  • Michael W. Beck
    • 1
  1. 1.The Nature Conservancy, Institute Of Marine SciencesUniversity of California-Santa CruzSanta CruzUSA
  2. 2.The Nature ConservancyMiamiUSA
  3. 3.The Nature ConservancySeattleUSA
  4. 4.NOAA Coastal Services CenterCharlestonUSA
  5. 5.Association of State Floodplain ManagersMadisonUSA

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