Natural Hazards

, Volume 47, Issue 3, pp 471–495 | Cite as

A quantitative appraisal of earthquake hazard parameters computed from Gumbel I method for different regions in and around Turkey

  • Serkan Öztürk
  • Yusuf Bayrak
  • Hakan Çınar
  • George Ch. Koravos
  • Theodoros M. Tsapanos
Original Paper


Useful information concerning the earthquake hazard parameters distributed in Turkey and the adjacent areas are estimated in the present work. Based on Gumbel’s I distribution parameters we are able to estimate the hazard values of the investigated area which are the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence of magnitude ≥M during a time span of t-years. Figures concerning the spatial distribution of probabilities and the return periods are plotted and we considered them of particular interest for mapping the earthquake hazard in Turkey and the surrounding areas. These figures effectively produce a brief earthquake hazard atlas. The quantitative appraisal of the hazard parameters is useful for engineers, planners, etc., because it provides a tool for earthquake resistant design.


Earthquake hazard Gumbel’s distribution Mean return period The most probable maximum magnitude 



The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude to the anonymous reviewer and the Editor-in-Chief Prof. Thomas Glade for their constructive criticism. S. Öztürk is grateful to Karadeniz Technical University (Turkey) for partially supporting this work (project number: 2006.112.007.2). Also, G. Koravos is grateful to GSRT (Greece) for partially supporting this work (project number: EPAN-M.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Serkan Öztürk
    • 1
  • Yusuf Bayrak
    • 1
  • Hakan Çınar
    • 1
  • George Ch. Koravos
    • 2
  • Theodoros M. Tsapanos
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of GeophysicsKaradeniz Technical UniversityTrabzonTurkey
  2. 2.Geophysical Laboratory, School of GeologyAristotle University of ThessalonikiThessalonikiGreece

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