Developing tsunami warnings from numerical model output
- 190 Downloads
A method is introduced for issuing tsunami warnings in the Australian region based on numerical model output. The method considers the maximum modelled wave amplitude within pre-defined coastal waters zones and uses this as a proxy for the potential impact on the coast. A three-level stratified warning is proposed: (1) No threat, (2) Marine threat and (3) Land threat. This method is applied to several case studies and the resulting warning characteristics are shown. While the method has its limitations, it is a significant improvement over current operational warning strategies, which are typically based solely on the magnitude of the earthquake and distance from the source.
KeywordsTsunamis Coastal Regions Warnings Tsunami Modelling Australia
The authors wish to thank Arthur Simanjuntak, Tony Leggett, Geoff Crane and the rest of the ATWS team within the Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience Australia for very useful discussions and John Bally, Matthew Wheeler and an anonymous reviewer for their useful and constructive reviews.
- Greenslade, DJM, Simanjuntak MA, Chittleborough J, Burbidge D (2007) A first-generation real-time tsunami forecasting system for the Australian region, BMRC Research Report No. 126, Bur. Met., AustraliaGoogle Scholar
- Northwest Telegraph (2005) “Lucky escape for Camper”, January 5th, 2005Google Scholar
- Prendergast A (2006) The Impact of the 2006 Java Tsunami on the Australian Coast: Post-tsunami Survey at Steep Point, Western Australia, AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco, December 2006Google Scholar
- The Age (2007) “Pacific tsunami carnage: Dozens die, panic in Australia after quake strikes Solomons”, April 3rd, 2007Google Scholar
- Warne J, Mitchell B, Greenslade DJM (2006) Post Event Report, 17 July 2006, Java Tsunami Event, Bureau of MeteorologyGoogle Scholar
- Whitmore PM (2003) Tsunami amplitude prediction during events: a test based on previous tsunamis. Sci Tsunami Haz 21(2):135–143Google Scholar
- Whitmore PM, Sokolowksi TJ (1996) Predicting tsunami amplitudes along the North American coast from tsunamis generated in the northwest Pacific Ocean during tsunami warnings. Sci Tsunami Haz 14:147–166Google Scholar