Natural Hazards

, Volume 45, Issue 1, pp 87–97 | Cite as

Probabilistic criteria for volcano evacuation decisions

Original Paper

Abstract

One of the most challenging decisions in the domain of natural hazards is whether to evacuate a densely populated region around a volcano that appears to threaten a major eruption. The economic expense of mass evacuation is high, yet the cost in possible human casualties is potentially much greater if an evacuation is not called, or is called late. To assist officials in weighing these considerations, probabilistic criteria for evacuation decision-making are developed within a cost-benefit analysis framework. It is shown that such criteria may be quantitatively expressed in terms of the proportion of the evacuees owing their lives to the evacuation call. The underlying principles are illustrated with some case studies where eruption probabilities have been estimated.

Keywords

Volcano Evacuation Risk Decision Event-tree Cost-benefit 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Risk Management SolutionsLondonUK

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