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Networks and Spatial Economics

, Volume 12, Issue 2, pp 239–262 | Cite as

Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth

  • David Levinson
  • Feng Xie
  • Norah M. Oca
Article

Abstract

This research assesses the implications of existing trends on future network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets and investment rules. The main scenarios compare “stated decision rules”, processes encoded in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion with agency staff, with “revealed decision rules”, weights estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. We find that given the relatively small amount of funds available for network growth in a mature system, alternative decision rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though they direct investments to very different locations and affect the trip time and spatial accessibility in a significantly different way.

Keywords

Network growth Decision-making Forecasting Evaluation The Twin Cities 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Civil EngineeringUniversity of MinnesotaMinneapolisUSA
  2. 2.Metropolitan Washington Council of GovernmentsWashingtonUSA
  3. 3.Loudoun County - Office of Transportation ServicesLeesburgUSA

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