Abstract
It is widely recognized that different economic development stages are associated with distinctive patterns of energy consumption. Forecast of future energy consumption for an expected GDP per capita has been an intriguing subject for many economists, policy makers, and resource scientists worldwide. This article takes a pragmatic approach to the examination of intrinsic relations between energy consumption and economic development using the historical data of past 160 years from 18 developed countries and regions. This analysis shows that the relations between energy consumption and GDP can be described by an S-curve model. The patterns of energy consumption in different economic development stages, including agricultural, industrialized, and post-industrialized societies, are characterized by different transitional thresholds, which are here referred to as the takeoff point, turning point, and zero-growth point of the energy consumption per capita. A thorough discussion is given to the implications of these critical points in the curve. Using a mathematical model and the critical thresholds, the S-curve can be divided into four transitional phases: slow growing phase, rapid growing phase, growth declining phase, and stagnant phase. The analysis forms a foundation for forecast of energy demands in different development stages in different countries.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.
References
Bernardini, O., & Galli, R. (1993). Dematerialization: Long term trends in the intensity of use of materials and energy. Futures, 25, 431–448.
BP. (2012). BP statistical review of world energy June 2012. Retrieved June 17, 2012 http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview.
Cheng, B. S., & Lai, T. W. (1997). An investigation of co-integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in Taiwan. Energy Economics, 19, 435–444.
Ebenhack, B. W. (2007). Energy resources: Availability, use and impact. Tulsa, OH: PennWell.
Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2011a). Estimated energy consumption in the United States, selected years, 1635–1945. http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/showtext.cfm?t=ptb1601.
Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2011b). Energy consumption, expenditures, and emissions indicators, 1949–2007. http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/pdf/sec1_13.pdf.
Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2012). Annual energy outlook 2012 with projections to 2035. Released June 2012.
Galli, R. (1998). The relationship between energy intensity and income levels: forecasting long-term energy demand in Asian emerging economies. Energy Journal, 19(4), 85–105.
International Energy Agency (IEA). (1995). World energy outlook. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/2008-1994/. Accessed 12 Nov 2013.
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2000). World energy outlook. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2008-1994/weo2000.pdf. Accessed 31 May 2013.
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2010). World energy balances. http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,27324,en.html. Accessed 4 Dec 2013.
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2012). World Energy Outlook 2012 http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/. Released on 12 November 2012.
Kraft, J., & Kraft, A. (1978). On the relationship between energy and GNP. Journal of Energy and Development, 3, 401–403.
Lee, C. C., & Chang, C. P. (2007). The impact of energy consumption on economic growth: evidence from linear and nonlinear models in Taiwan. Energy, 32, 2282–2294.
Lescaroux, F. (2011). Dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity. Energy Policy, 39, 66–82.
Lescaroux, F., & Rech, O. (2008). The impact of automobile diffusion on the income elasticity of motor fuel demand. The Energy Journal, 29(1), 41–60.
Maddison, A. (2001). The world economy: Millennial perspective. Paris: Development Centre of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Masih, A. M. M., & Masih, R. (1997). On the temporal causal relationship between energy consumption, real income, and prices: some new evidence from Asian-energy dependent NICs based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction approach. Journal of Policy Modeling, 19, 417–440.
Medlock, K. B, I. I. I., & Soligo, R. (2001). Economic development and end-use energy demand. The Energy Journal, 22(2), 77–105.
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). (2009). White paper on international economy and trade 2009. http://www.meti.go.jp/english/report/data/gWT2009fe.html.
Mitchell, B. R. (2002a). International historical statistics: Europe 1750–1993. Beijing: Economy Science. (in Chinese).
Mitchell, B. R. (2002b). International historical statistics: Africa, Asia & Oceania 1750–1993. Beijing: Economy Science. (in Chinese).
Mitchell, B. R. (2002c). International historical statistics: The Americas 1750–1993. Beijing: Economy Science. (in Chinese).
Oppenheim, A. V., Schafer, R. W., and Buck, J. R. (1999). Discrete-time signal processing. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. ISBN 0-13-754920-2.
Paul, S. H. (2004). Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in India: A note on conflicting results. Energy Economics, 26, 977–983.
Verhulst, P. F. (1838). Notice sur la loi que la population suit dans son accroissement: Correspondence. Mathematique et Physique, 10, 113–121.
Wang, A. J., Wang, G. S., Chen, Q. S., & Yu, W. J. (2010). The mineral resources demand theory and the prediction model. Acta Geoscientica Sinica, 31(2), 137–147. (in Chinese).
Wang, A. J., Wang, G. S., Chen, Q. S., Yu, W. J., Zhou, F. Y., Han, S. Q., et al. (2008). Energy and nation economic development. Beijing: Geological. (in Chinese).
Wang, A. J., Wang, G. S., & Zhang, J. H. (2002). Mineral resources and nation economic development. Beijing: Seismic. (in Chinese).
Yan, K. (2009). Research on tendency equation about the concentration data of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the past 60 years. Progress in Geophysics, 24(5), 1665–1670. (in Chinese).
Yang, H. Y. (2000). A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan. Energy Economics, 22, 309–317.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Dr. Guocheng Pan for narrative editing. Two reviewers also merit our most sincere gratitude for presenting comments that greatly improved this manuscript.
Author information
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wang, A., Wang, G., Chen, Q. et al. S-curve Model of Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Development. Nat Resour Res 24, 53–64 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-014-9234-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
Keywords
- Energy consumption
- GDP
- S-curve model
- Critical transitional thresholds