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Natural Resources Research

, Volume 21, Issue 1, pp 23–41 | Cite as

Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks

  • Mikael Höök
  • Junchen Li
  • Kersti Johansson
  • Simon Snowden
Article

Abstract

The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems’ growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid ‘oil boom’-development—i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events—their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.

Keywords

global energy systems growth rates energy forecasting scenarios long-term forecasting evaluating forecasts 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This study has been supported by the STandUP for energy collaboration initiative. We would like to thank Sergey Yachenkov at the Kurchatov Institute in Moscow for constructive discussions. Professor Al Bartlett has our appreciation for being an important source of inspiration.

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Copyright information

© International Association for Mathematical Geology 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mikael Höök
    • 1
  • Junchen Li
    • 2
  • Kersti Johansson
    • 1
  • Simon Snowden
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy SystemsUppsala UniversityUppsalaSweden
  2. 2.School of Business AdministrationChina University of Petroleum—BeijingBeijingChina
  3. 3.Management SchoolUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpoolUK

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