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Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks

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Abstract

The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems’ growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid ‘oil boom’-development—i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events—their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.

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Acknowledgments

This study has been supported by the STandUP for energy collaboration initiative. We would like to thank Sergey Yachenkov at the Kurchatov Institute in Moscow for constructive discussions. Professor Al Bartlett has our appreciation for being an important source of inspiration.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University, Lägerhyddsvägen 1, P.O. Box 535, 75121, Uppsala, Sweden

    Mikael Höök & Kersti Johansson

  2. School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum—Beijing, 18 Fuxue Road, Changping, Beijing, China

    Junchen Li

  3. Management School, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK

    Simon Snowden

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  1. Mikael Höök
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Correspondence to Mikael Höök.

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Höök, M., Li, J., Johansson, K. et al. Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks. Nat Resour Res 21, 23–41 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-011-9162-0

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