Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt’s agricultural sector
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- McCarl, B.A., Musumba, M., Smith, J.B. et al. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2015) 20: 1097. doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9520-9
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Egyptian agriculture is vulnerable to potential climate change due to its dependence on irrigated crops, a climate that is too dry to support crops, and increasing water demands. This study analyzes the agricultural implications of climate change and population growth plus possible adaptations strategies. A partial equilibrium model that simulates crop and livestock production along with water flows and non-agricultural water use is used to analyze the impact of climate change. The study examines the implications of climate change effects on crop yields, livestock performance, non-agricultural water use, water supply, irrigation water use, sea level rise and a growing population. Results indicate that climate change damages the Egyptian agricultural sector and the damages increase over time (2030–2060). Prices for agricultural commodities increase and this has a negative effect on consumers but a positive effect on producers. Egypt may reduce these damages by adapting through lower demand growth, raised agricultural technological progress, sea rise protection and water conservation strategies.