A new post-Kyoto climate regime based on per-capita cumulative CO2-emission rights—rationale, architecture and quantitative assessment of the implication for the CO2-emissions from China, India and the Annex-I countries by 2050

Original Article

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most severe global problems in the 21st century. Main drivers are the combustion of fossil fuels, the emissions of industrial gases, emissions from agricultural sites and animal husbandry as well as deforestation. A new cooperative climate regime is necessary to meet the World’s energy and environmental problems against the background of China’s and India’s energy consumption growth. For the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol after 2012, a successor regime has to be agreed on. The current approaches, however, have a common weakness. They at the same time (a) do not acknowledge the historical responsibilities of the industrialized countries for the historical greenhouse gas emissions and the responsibility of developing countries for a large fraction of the current future emissions, and (b) do not provide for a fair distribution of emission rights. Against this background, this article aims at forecasting China’s and India's CO2-emissions up to 2050 and developing a new suggestion for a post Kyoto climate regime based on a cumulated per capita CO2-emission rights taking the weaknesses of the currently discussed post Kyoto approaches into account.

Keywords

Climate change New post Kyoto regime Cumulated per capita CO2 emission rights China India CO2-emission forecast 2050 

Abbreviations

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ppm

Parts per million

MEF

Major Economies Forum

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

GHG

Greenhouse gases

CCS

Carbon capture and storage

COP

Conference of the Parties

CO2

Carbon dioxide

CH4

Methane

N2O

Nitrous oxide

PFCs

Perfluorocarbons

HFCs

Hydrofluorocarbons

SF6

Sulphur hexafluoride

Tg

Teragram

OLS

Ordinary least square

ADF

Augmented Dickey and Fuller (test)

PPP

Purchasing Power Parities

Radj2

Adjusted correlation coefficient

DW

Durbin–Watson test value

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Research Center for International Environmental Policy (RCIEP)Tsinghua UniversityBeijingChina
  2. 2.Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für WirtschaftsforschungEssenGemany
  3. 3.Integrated Expert Centrum für Internationale Migation und Entwicklung (CIM)FrankfurtGemany

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