Minds and Machines

, Volume 18, Issue 4, pp 521–526 | Cite as

Optimism in the Face of Uncertainty Should be Refutable

Article

Abstract

We give an example from the theory of Markov decision processes which shows that the “optimism in the face of uncertainty” heuristics may fail to make any progress. This is due to the impossibility to falsify a belief that a (transition) probability is larger than 0. Our example shows the utility of Popper’s demand of falsifiability of hypotheses in the area of artificial intelligence.

Keywords

Markov decision processes Refutability Reinforcement learning 

References

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department Mathematik und InformationstechnolgieMontanuniversität LeobenLeobenAustria

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