The Temporal Stage Fallacy: A novel Statistical Fallacy in the medical literature
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Celebrated for disproving the traditional view that lack of oxygen at birth (perinatal asphyxia) contributes significantly to cerebral palsy, a 1986 New England Journal of Medicine article by Karin Nelson and Jonas Ellenberg engineered a new consensus in the medical community: that lack of oxygen at birth rarely causes cerebral palsy. We demonstrate that the article's central argument relies on straightforwardly fallacious statistical reasoning, and we discuss significant implications -- e.g. how carefully fetuses are monitored during labor and delivery, expert testimony in malpractice cases, and public policy decisions.
Keywordsasphyxia neonatorum asphyxia neonatorum/complications birth injuries/complications cerebral palsy cerebral palsy/etiology Daubert Ellenberg Jonas expert testimony fetal anoxia fetal distress/complications hypoxia-ischemia brain/etiology malpractice movement disorders/etiology/physiopathology/prevention & control National Collaborative Perinatal Project National Institutes of Health (US) Nelson Karin New England Journal of Medicine obstetrics perinatology
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