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Alarm Systems and Catastrophes from a Diverse Point of View

Abstract

Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.

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Author information

Correspondence to Pasquale Cirillo.

Additional information

This work has been partially supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation.

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Cirillo, P., Hüsler, J. & Muliere, P. Alarm Systems and Catastrophes from a Diverse Point of View. Methodol Comput Appl Probab 15, 821–839 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11009-012-9281-z

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Keywords

  • Alarm system
  • Catastrophe
  • Risk analysis
  • Forecasting
  • Exchangeability
  • Urn model

AMS 2010 Subject Classifications

  • 60G20
  • 60G70
  • 60G09
  • 97Kxx