Drawdowns and Rallies in a Finite Time-horizon

Drawdowns and Rallies
Article

Abstract

In this work we derive the probability that a rally of a units precedes a drawdown of equal units in a random walk model and its continuous equivalent, a Brownian motion model in the presence of a finite time-horizon. A rally is defined as the difference of the present value of the holdings of an investor and its historical minimum, while the drawdown is defined as the difference of the historical maximum and its present value. We discuss applications of these results in finance and in particular risk management.

Keywords

Drawdown Rally Random walk Brownian motion 

AMS 2000 Subject Classifications

Primary 60G40 Secondary 91A60 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Mathematics, Graduate CenterC.U.N.Y.New YorkUSA
  2. 2.Department of Mathematics, Brooklyn College and the Graduate CenterC.U.N.Y.New YorkUSA

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