Marketing Letters

, Volume 16, Issue 3–4, pp 225–237 | Cite as

Theory-Driven Choice Models

  • Tülin Erdem
  • Kannan Srinivasan
  • Wilfred Amaldoss
  • Patrick Bajari
  • Hai Che
  • Teck Ho
  • Wes Hutchinson
  • Michael Katz
  • Michael Keane
  • Robert Meyer
  • Peter Reiss
Article

Abstract

We explore issues in theory-driven choice modeling by focusing on partial-equilibrium models of dynamic structural demand with forward-looking decision-makers, full equilibrium models that integrate the supply side, integration of bounded rationality in dynamic structural models of choice and public policy implications of these models.

Keywords

dynamic choice structural modeling and estimation heuristics and biases 
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References

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  34. Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky. (1979). “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,” Econometrica 47, 263–292.Google Scholar
  35. Kivetz, R., O. Netzer, and V. Srinivasan. (2004). “Alternative Models for Capturing the Compromise Effect,” Journal of Marketing Research 41(3), 237–157.Google Scholar
  36. Kruschke, John K. (1992). “ALCOVE: An exemplar-based connectionist model of category learning,” Psychological Review 99(1), 22–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Laibson, D. (1997). “Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 62(2), 443–478.Google Scholar
  38. Lowenstein, G. and D. Prelec. (1992). “Anamolies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and Interpretation,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 57, 573–98.Google Scholar
  39. Lucas, R. E. (1976). “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique” in Karl Brunner and Allan H. Meltzer, eds., The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1, 19–46.Google Scholar
  40. March J. G. (1996). “Learning to Be Risk Averse,” Psychological Review 103 309–319.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. McKelvey, R. and T. Palfrey (1995) “Quantal Response Equilibria for Normal-form Games,” Games and Economic Behavior VII, 6–38.Google Scholar
  42. Mehta, N., S. Rajiv, and K. Srinivasan. (2003). “Price Uncertainty and Consumer Search: A Structural Model of Consideration Set Formation,” Marketing Science 22(1), 58–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Mehta, N., S. Rajiv, and K. Srinivasan. (2004). “Role of Forgetting in Memory-based Choice Decisions,” Quantitative Marketing and Economics 2(2), 107–140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Melnikov, O. (2000). “Demand for Differentiated Durable Products: The Case of the US Computer Printer Market,” Working Paper, Yale University.Google Scholar
  45. Meyer, Robert J. and Yong Shi. (1995). “Intuitive Solutions to the Armed-Bandit Problem”, Management Science.Google Scholar
  46. Milgrom, P. and J. Roberts. (1986). “Relying on the Information of Interested Parties,” Rand Journal of Economics 17, 18–32.Google Scholar
  47. O'Donoghue, T. and M. Rabin. (1999). “Doing it Now or Later,” American Economic Review 89(1), 103–124.Google Scholar
  48. Pakes, A., M. Ostrovsky, and S. Berry. (2003). “Simple Estimators for the Parameters of Discrete Dynamic Games (with Entry/Exit Samples),” NBER Working Paper w10506.Google Scholar
  49. Parco, J., A. Rapoport, and W. Amaldoss. (2004). “Two-Stage Contests with Budget Constraints:An Experimental Study,” Working Paper, Dept. of Management, United States Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs.Google Scholar
  50. Pesendorfer, M. and Schmidt-Dengler. (2003). “Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games,” NBER Working Paper w9726.Google Scholar
  51. Petrin, A. and K. Train. (2003). “Omitted Product Attributes in Discrete Choice Models,” University of Chicago Working Paper.Google Scholar
  52. Prelec, D. (1998). “The Probability Weighting Function,” Econometrica 66(3), 497–527.Google Scholar
  53. Rabin, M. (1993). “Incorporating Fairness into Game Theory and Economics,” American Economic Review LXXXIII, 1281–1303.Google Scholar
  54. Reiss, P. (1996). “Empirical Models of Discrete Strategic Choice,” American Economic Review 86, 421–426.Google Scholar
  55. Reiss, P. and F. Wolak. (2003). “Structural Econometric Models: Rationales and Examples from Industrial Organization,” Stanford GSB working paper.Google Scholar
  56. Rust, J. (1994). “Structural Estimation of Markov Decision Processes,” in R. Engle and D. McFadden (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, Ch. 51, North Holland: Elsevier.Google Scholar
  57. Song, I. and P. Chintagunta. (2003). “A Micromodel of New Product Adoption with Heterogeneous and Forward-Looking Consumers: Application to the Digital Camera Category,” Quantitative Marketing and Economics 1(4), 371–407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Sudhir, K. (2001). “Structural Analysis of Competitive Pricing in the Presence of a Strategic Retailer,” Marketing Science Summer, 244–264.Google Scholar
  59. Sun, B., S. Neslin, and K. Srinivasan. (2003). “Measuring the Impact of Promotions on Brand Switching Under Rational Consumer Behavior,” Journal of Marketing Research 40(4), 389–405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Thaler, R. (1995). “Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice,” Marketing Science 4(3), 199–214.Google Scholar
  61. Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman. (1992). “Cumulative Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Uncertainty,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5, 297–323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Tversky, A. and I. Simonson. (1993). “Context-Dependent Preferences,” Management Science 39(10), 1179–1189.Google Scholar
  63. Villas-Boas, M. and Y. Zhao. (2005). “Retailer, Manufacturers, and Individual Consumers: Modeling the Supply Side in the Ketchup Marketplace,” Journal of Marketing Research 42, 83–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Ackerberg, D. (2003). “Advertising, Learning, and Consumer Choice in Experience Good Markets,” Advances in economics, Volume 1, Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
  65. Aguirregabiria, V. (2002). “Sales Promotions in Supermarkets: Estimating Their Effects Profits and Consumer Welfare,” Boston University working paper.Google Scholar
  66. Aguirregabiria, V. (1999). “The Dynamics of Markups and Inventories in Retailing Firms,” The Review of Economic Studies, 66, 275–308.Google Scholar
  67. Aguirregabiria, V. and P. Mira. (2002). “Swapping the Nested Fixed Point Algorithm: A Class of Estimators for Discrete Markov Decision Models,” Econometrica, 70, 1519–1543.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Anand, B., and R. Shachar. (2002). “Risk Aversion and Apparently Persuasive Advertising,” Harvard Business School Working Paper Series, No. 02–099.Google Scholar
  69. Bajari, P. and L. Ye. (2003). “Deciding Between Competition and Collusion,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 971–989.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Bajari, P. and C. L. Benkard. (2003). “Demand Estimation With Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach,” NBER Working Paper w10278.Google Scholar
  71. Bajari, P., and A. Hortacsu. (2003). “Are Structural Estimates of Auction Models Reasonable? Evidence from Experimental Data,” NBER Working Paper w9889.Google Scholar
  72. Baye, M. and J. Morgan, “Price Dispersion in the Lab and on the Internet: Theory and Evidence,” RAND Journal of Economics, 35(3), 449–466.Google Scholar
  73. Berry, S. and P. Reiss. (2004). “Empirical Models of Entry and Market Structure,” in R. Porter and M. Armstrong, Handbook of Industrial Organization, Vol. 3, North Holland.Google Scholar
  74. Berto Villas-Boas, S. (2004). “Vertical Contracts Between Manufacturers and Retailers: Inference With Limited Data,” University of California Berkeley working paper.Google Scholar
  75. Berry, S., J. Levinsohn, and A. Pakes. (1995). “Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium,” Econometrica, 63(4), 841–89.Google Scholar
  76. Busemeyer, Jerome R. and InJae Myung. (1992). “An Adaptive Approach to Human Decision Making: Learning Theory, Decision Theory, and Human Performance,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 121(2), 177–194.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. Camerer, C. and Ho T-H. (1994). “Violations of Betweenness Axiom and Nonlinearity in Probability,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 8, 167–196.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. Camerer, C. and T-H Ho. (1999). “Experience-Weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games,” Econometrica, 67(4), 827–874.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Camerer, C., T-H Ho, and J-K Chong. (2002). “A Cognitive Theory of One-Shot Games,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2004, 119(3), 861–898.Google Scholar
  80. Camerer, C. and R. Thaler. (1995). “Ultimatums, Dictators, and Manners,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, IX, 209–219.Google Scholar
  81. Che, H., Seetharaman, P. B., and K. Sudhir. (2004). “Pricing Behvior in Markets With State-dependence in Demand,” University of California at Berkeley working paper.Google Scholar
  82. Chintagunta, P., Dubé, J. P., and V. Singh. (2003). “Balancing Profitability and Customer Welfare in a Supermarket Chain,” Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 1, 111–147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  83. Draganska, M. and D. Jain. (2004). “Product Line Length as a Competitive Tool,” Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, forthcoming.Google Scholar
  84. Erdem, T. and M. P. Keane. (1996). “Decision-Making under Uncertainty: Capturing Dynamic Brand Choice Processes in Turbulent Consumer Goods Markets,” Marketing science, 15, 1–20.Google Scholar
  85. Erdem, T., S. Imai and M. P. Keane. (2003). “Brand and Quantity Choice Dynamics under Price Uncertainty,” Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 1, 5–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  86. Erdem, T., M. P. Keane, T. S. Öncü, and J. Strebel. (2005). “Learning about Computers: An Analysis of Information Search and Technology Choice,” Quantitative Marketing and Economics, forthcoming.Google Scholar
  87. Fehr, E. and K. Schmidt. (1999). “A Theory of Fairness, Competition, and Cooperation,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, August, 817–868.Google Scholar
  88. Geweke, J. M. P. Keane. (2001). “Computationally Intensive Methods for Integration in Econometrics,” in J. J. Heckman and E. E. Learner (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 5, Elsevier Science.Google Scholar
  89. GÖnül, F. and K. Srinivasan. (1996). “Estimating the Impact of Consumer Expectations of Coupons on Purchase Behavior: A Dynamic Structural Model,” Marketing science, 15, 262–279.Google Scholar
  90. Grossman, S. J. (1981). “The Informational Role of Warranties and Private Disclosure about Product Quality,” Journal of Law & Economics, 24(3), 461–483.Google Scholar
  91. Guerre, E., I. Perrigne, and Q. Vuong. (2000). “Optimal Nonparametric Estimation of First–Price Auctions,” Econometrica, 68, 525–574.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  92. Hendel, I. and A. Nevo. (2002). “Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Stockpiling Behavior,” Working Paper, UC Berkeley.Google Scholar
  93. Hotz, V. J. and R. A. Miller. (1993). “Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models,” Review of Economic Studies, 60, 497–529.Google Scholar
  94. Houser, D., M. Keane, and K. McCabe. (2004). “Behavior in a Dynamic Decision Problem: An Analysis of Experimental Evidence Using a Bayesian Classification Algorithm,”Econometrica, 72(3), 781–822.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  95. Jolls, Christine, Cass R. Sunstein, and Richard Thaler. (1998). “A Behavioral Approach to Law and Economics,” Stanford Law Review, 50, 1471–1550.Google Scholar
  96. Kahneman, D., J. Knetsch, and R. Thaler. (1986). “Fairness as a Constraint on Profit Seeking: Entitlements in the Market,” American Economic Review, LXXVI, 728–741.Google Scholar
  97. Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky. (1979). “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,” Econometrica, 47, 263–292.Google Scholar
  98. Kivetz, R., O. Netzer, and V. Srinivasan. (2004). “Alternative Models for Capturing the Compromise Effect,” Journal of Marketing Research, 41(3), 237–157.Google Scholar
  99. Kruschke, John K. (1992). “ALCOVE: An Exemplar-Based Connectionist Model of Category Learning,” Psychological review, 99(1), 22–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  100. Laibson, D. (1997). “Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 62(2), 443–478.Google Scholar
  101. Lowenstein, G. and D. Prelec. (1992). “Anamolies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and Interpretation,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 57, 573–98.Google Scholar
  102. Lucas, R. E. (1976). “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique,” in Karl Brunner and Allan H. Meltzer, eds., The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1, 19–46.Google Scholar
  103. March J. G. (1996). “Learning to Be Risk Averse,” Psychological review, 103 309–319.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  104. McKelvey, R. and T. Palfrey. (1995). “Quantal Response Equilibria for Normal-form Games,” Games and Economic Behavior, VII, 6–38.Google Scholar
  105. Mehta, N., S. Rajiv, and K. Srinivasan. (2003). “Price Uncertainty and Consumer Search: A Structural Model of Consideration Set Formation,” Marketing science, 22(1), 58–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  106. Mehta, N., S. Rajiv, and K. Srinivasan. (2004). “Role of Forgetting in Memory-based Choice Decisions,” Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 2(2), 107–140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  107. Melnikov, O. (2000). “Demand for Differentiated Durable Products: The Case of the US Computer Printer Market,” Working Paper, Yale University.Google Scholar
  108. Meyer, Robert J. and Yong Shi. (1995). “Intuitive Solutions to the Armed-Bandit Problem,”, Management science.Google Scholar
  109. Milgrom, P. and J. Roberts. (1986). “Relying on the Information of Interested Parties,” Rand Journal of Economics, 17, 18–32.Google Scholar
  110. O'Donoghue, T. and M. Rabin. (1999). “Doing it Now or Later,” American Economic Review, 89(1), 103–124.Google Scholar
  111. Pakes, A., M. Ostrovsky, and S. Berry. (2003). “Simple Estimators for the Parameters of Discrete Dynamic Games (with Entry/Exit Samples),” NBER Working Paper w10506.Google Scholar
  112. Parco, J., A. Rapoport, and W. Amaldoss. (2004). “Two-Stage Contests with Budget Constraints:An Experimental Study,” Working Paper, Dept. of Management, United States Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs.Google Scholar
  113. Pesendorfer, M. and Schmidt-Dengler. (2003). “Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games,” NBER Working Paper w9726.Google Scholar
  114. Petrin, A. and K. Train. (2003). “Omitted Product Attributes in Discrete Choice Models,” University of Chicago Working Paper.Google Scholar
  115. Prelec, D. (1998). “The Probability Weighting Function,” Econometrica, 66(3), 497–527.Google Scholar
  116. Rabin, M. (1993). “Incorporating Fairness into Game Theory and Economics,” American Economic Review, LXXXIII, 1281–1303.Google Scholar
  117. Reiss, P. (1996). “Empirical Models of Discrete Strategic Choice,” American Economic Review, 86, 421–426.Google Scholar
  118. Reiss, P. and F. Wolak. (2003). “Structural Econometric Models: Rationales and Examples from Industrial Organization,” Stanford GSB working paper.Google Scholar
  119. Rust, J. (1994). “Structural Estimation of Markov Decision Processes,” in R. Engle and D. McFadden (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, Ch. 51, North Holland: Elsevier.Google Scholar
  120. Song, I. and P. Chintagunta. (2003). “A Micromodel of New Product Adoption with Heterogeneous and Forward-Looking Consumers: Application to the Digital Camera Category,” Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 1(4), 371–407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  121. Sudhir, K. (2001). “Structural Analysis of Competitive Pricing in the Presence of a Strategic Retailer,” Marketing science, Summer, 244–264.Google Scholar
  122. Sun, B., S. Neslin, and K. Srinivasan. (2003). “Measuring the Impact of Promotions on Brand Switching Under Rational Consumer Behavior,” Journal of Marketing Research, 40(4), 389–405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  123. Thaler, R. (1995). “Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice,” Marketing science, 4(3), 199–214.Google Scholar
  124. Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman. (1992). “Cumulative Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Uncertainty,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 297–323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  125. Tversky, A. and I. Simonson. (1993). “Context-Dependent Preferences,” Management science, 39(10), 1179–1189.Google Scholar
  126. Villas-Boas, M. and Y. Zhao. (2005). “Retailer, Manufacturers, and Individual Consumers: Modeling the Supply Side in the Ketchup Marketplace,” Journal of Marketing Research, 42, 83–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  • Tülin Erdem
    • 1
  • Kannan Srinivasan
    • 2
  • Wilfred Amaldoss
    • 3
  • Patrick Bajari
    • 3
  • Hai Che
    • 1
  • Teck Ho
    • 1
  • Wes Hutchinson
    • 4
  • Michael Katz
    • 1
  • Michael Keane
    • 5
  • Robert Meyer
    • 4
  • Peter Reiss
    • 6
  1. 1.Haas School of BusinessUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeley
  2. 2.GSTACarnegie-Mellon UniversityUSA
  3. 3.Fuqva School of BusinessDuke UniversityUSA
  4. 4.Wharton, University of PennsylvaniaUSA
  5. 5.Economics DepartmentYale UniversityUSA
  6. 6.Graduate School of BusinessStanford University

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