Habitat networks and food security: promoting species range shift under climate change depends on life history and the dynamics of land use choices
- 606 Downloads
Habitat networks are often advocated as an effective measure for adaptation to climate change, while intensification of land use is a possible response to threats to food security.
We examined the question of whether woodland networks are likely to help promote species range shift, and tried to disentangle the influence of land use change, as mediated by land managers’ choices, climate change and dispersal ability.
Using Scotland as the study area, we considered species types with different dispersal abilities and, with the help of an Agent-Based Model, constructed four stylised scenarios in with different levels of woodland planting and different land managers’ choices. We then modelled range expansion of broadleaved woodland species having increasing dispersal abilities.
Woodland networks could help range shift for species with dispersal distance (DD) of more than 2 km, but would be no panacea if rapid range shift were needed to preserve population viability. In particular, land use choices influenced most the movements of species with DD between 2 and 5 km. Therefore for such species potential disequilibrium between climate and distribution can be mitigated by increasing stepping stones thus improving landscape permeability to movement. Species that had DD ≤2 km moved very slowly in our simulations, and this is consistent with paleo-ecological estimates.
For populations of species with short DD that might need to shift their distribution to remain viable, translocation could be a more effective conservation option than creating woodland networks.
KeywordsLandscape fragmentation Stepping stones Social simulation Disequilibrium Landscape adaptation Species migration
We thank the Scottish Government’s Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division for financial support. We wish to thank Dr. Martha Bakker and two anonymous referees for helpful comments that helped improve the quality of the manuscript.
- Bergsten A, Bodin O, Ecke F (2013) Protected areas in a landscape dominated by logging–A connectivity analysis that integrates varying protection levels with competition–colonization tradeoffs. Cons Biol 160:279–288Google Scholar
- Bibby JS, Douglas HA, Thomasson AJ, Robertson JS (1982) Land capability classification for agriculture. Macaulay Institute for Soil Research, AberdeenGoogle Scholar
- Bullock JM, Kenward RE, Hails RS (2002) Dispersal ecology. Blackwell Science, Ltd., Oxford. ISBN 0-632-05877-3Google Scholar
- Burrows MT, Schoeman DS, Richardson AJ, Molinos JG, Hoffmann A, Buckley LB, Moore PJ, Brown CJ, Bruno JF, Duarte CM, Halpern BS, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Kappel CV, Kiessling W, Connor MI, Pandolfi JM, Parmesan C, Sydeman WJ, Ferrier S, Williams KJ, Poloczanska ES (2014) Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity. Nature 507(7493):492–495CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Burton RJF (2004) Seeing through the ‘good farmer’s’ eyes: towards developing an understanding of the social symbolic value of ‘productivist’ behaviour. Sociol Rural 44(2):195-+Google Scholar
- Campbell B (2014) Climate change: call for UN to act on food security. Nature 509(7500):288Google Scholar
- Engler R, Hordijk W, Pellissier L (2013) MigClim: implementing dispersal into species distribution models. R package. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=MigClim
- Godfray HCJ, Beddington JR, Crute IR, Haddad L, Lawrence D, Muir JF, Pretty J, Robinson S, Thomas SM, Toulmin C (2010) Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science 327(5967):812–818Google Scholar
- Godfray HCJ, Garnett T (2014) Food security and sustainable intensification. Phil Trans R Soc B 369:20120273Google Scholar
- Goovaerts P (1997) Geostatistics for natural resources evaluation. Applied Geostatistics Series. xiv + 483 pp. New York, Oxford University PressGoogle Scholar
- Gotts NM, Polhill JG (2009) When and how to imitate your neighbours: lessons from and for FEARLUS. J Artif Soc Soc Simul 12:2. http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/12/3/2.html. Accessed 1 Sept 2014
- Hastie T, Tibshirani R (1990) Generalized additive models. Chapman and Hall, LondonGoogle Scholar
- Lavalle C, Micale F, Houston TD, Camia A, Hiederer R, Lazar C, Conte C, Amatulli G, Genovese G (2009) Climate change in Europe. 3. Impact on agriculture and forestry. A review. Agron Sustain Dev 29(3):433–446Google Scholar
- Lawton JH, Brotherton PNM, Brown VK, Elphick C, Fitter AH, Forshaw J, Haddow RW, Hilborne S, Leafe RN, Mace GM, Southgate MP, Sutherland WJ, Tew TE, Varley J, Wynne GR (2010) Making space for nature: a review of England’s wildlife sites and ecological network. Report to DefraGoogle Scholar
- Lindenmayer D1, Hobbs RJ, Montague-Drake R, Alexandra J, Bennett A, Burgman M, Cale P, Calhoun A, Cramer V, Cullen P, Driscoll D, Fahrig L, Fischer J, Franklin J, Haila Y, Hunter M, Gibbons P, Lake S, Luck G, MacGregor C, McIntyre S, Nally RM, Manning A, Miller J, Mooney H, Noss R, Possingham H, Saunders D, Schmiegelow F, Scott M, Simberloff D, Sisk T, Tabor G, Walker B, Wiens J, Woinarski J, Zavaleta E (2008) A checklist for ecological management of landscapes for conservation. Ecol Lett 11(1):78–91Google Scholar
- Long SP, Ainsworth EA, Leakey ADB, Morgan PB (2005) Global food insecurity. Treatment of major food crops with elevated carbon dioxide or ozone under large-scale fully open-air conditions suggests recent models may have overestimated future yields. Philos Trans R Soc B 360(1463):2011–2020CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) (2005) Ecosystems & human well-being: synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
- Morton D, Rowland C, Wood C, Meek L, Marston C, Smith G, Wadsworth R, Simpson IC (2011) Final report for LCM2007—the new UK Land Cover Map. CS Technical Report No. 11/07. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. http://www.ceh.ac.uk/documents/lcm2007finalreport.pdf. Accessed 25 March 2014
- Normand S, Randin C, Ohlemüller R, Bay C, Høye TT, Kjær ED,Körner C, Lischke H, Maiorano L, Paulsen J, Pearman P, Psomas A, Treier U, Zimmermann NE, Svenning JC (2013) A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs. Philos Trans R Soc 368:20120479, 12 p. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0479
- Opdam P, Washer D (2004) Climate change meets habitat fragmentation: linking landscape and biogeographical scale level in research and conservation. Biol Conserv 117:285–297Google Scholar
- Patterson G, Nelson D, Robertson P, Tullis J (2014) Scotland’s native woodlands. Results from the native woodland survey of Scotland. Forestry Commission Scotland. http://www.forestry.gov.uk/pdf/NWSS-Report2014.pdf/$FILE/NWSS-Report2014.pdf. Accessed 25 March 2014
- Peltonen-Sainio P, Jauhiainen L, Laurila IP (2009) Cereal yield trends in northern European conditions: changes in yield potential and its realisation. Field Crops Res 110:85–90Google Scholar
- Piquer-Rodríguez M, Torrella S, Gavier-Pizarro G, Volante J, Somma D, Ginzburg R, Kuemmerle T (Present issues) Effects of past and future land conversions on forest connectivity in the Argentine Chaco. Landscape EcolGoogle Scholar
- Polhill JG, Gotts NM, Law ANR (2001) Imitative versus nonimitative strategies in a land-use simulation. Cybern Syst 32(1–2):285–307Google Scholar
- Polhill JG, Sutherland L-A, Gotts NM (2010) Using qualitative evidence to enhance an agent-based modelling system for studying land use change. J Artif Soc Soc Simul 13(2):10. http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/13/2/10.html
- Schwartz MW, Hellmann JJ, McLachlan JM, Sax DF, Borevitz JO, Brennan J, Camacho AE, Ceballos G, Clark JR, Doremus H, Early R, Etterson JR, Fielder D, Gill JL, Gonzalez P, Green N, Hannah L, Jamieson DW, Javeline D, Minteer BA, Odenbaugh J, Polasky S, Richardson DM, Root TL, Safford HD, Sala O, Schneider SH, Thompson AR, Williams JW, Vellend M, Vitt P, Zellmer S (2012) Managed relocation: integrating the scientific, regulatory and ethical challenges. Bioscience 62:732–743CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Simon HA (1955) A behavioral model of rational choice. Q J Econ 69:99–118. Reprinted in Simon HA (1957) Models of man, social and rational: mathematical essays on rational human behavior in a social setting, Chap. 14, pp 241–260Google Scholar
- Wheeler T, von Braun J (2013) Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 341(6145):508–513Google Scholar
- Wood S (2006) Generalized additive models: an introduction with R. Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, Boca RatonGoogle Scholar