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Landscape Ecology

, Volume 30, Issue 5, pp 791–804 | Cite as

The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change

  • Martha BakkerEmail author
  • Shah Jamal Alam
  • Jerry van Dijk
  • Mark Rounsevell
  • Teun Spek
  • Adri van den Brink
Research Article

Abstract

Context

Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy reform refers to the abolition of an intermediary organization that organizes land trades with the support of a national land bank.

Objective

In this paper we evaluate the effects of these factors on future land acquisition for the NEN.

Methods

We applied an agent-based model of the land market based on sales and purchases between farmers and nature-conservation organizations (establishing the NEN) within a case study area.

Results

Our results demonstrate that future land acquisitions for the NEN are constrained by strong competition for land from farmers due to improved economic prospects for farming. Effects of climate change are that fewer parcels will be sold from farmers to nature-conservation organizations in a dry scenario as compared to a wet scenario. An important constraint for land acquisitions is the low willingness to pay (WTP) for land by nature-conservation organizations. We demonstrate that higher WTP increases land purchases considerably. However, the spatial pattern of land acquisition is fragmented, which may undermine its effectiveness from a restoration perspective.

Conclusions

The combination of these processes leads to land acquisitions for the NEN that do not meet the initially-stated policy objectives by far. In addition, the abolition of a land-trade organization supported by a land bank leads to more fragmented pattern of nature reserves.

Keywords

Ecosystem restoration Agent-based model Climate change Land use change Land market Land use planning 

Notes

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Tom Kuhlman and Esther Boere for their help with retrieving the required data from the agricultural census. This work was carried out within the Project Climate Adaptation for Rural Areas (CARE), which was funded by the Knowledge for Climate Programme (http://www.knowledgeforclimate.climateresearchnetherlands.nl/climateadaptationforruralareas).

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Martha Bakker
    • 1
    Email author
  • Shah Jamal Alam
    • 2
  • Jerry van Dijk
    • 3
  • Mark Rounsevell
    • 2
  • Teun Spek
    • 4
  • Adri van den Brink
    • 5
  1. 1.Land Use Planning GroupWageningen UniversityWageningenThe Netherlandss
  2. 2.School of GeoSciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
  3. 3.Copernicus Institute of Sustainable DevelopmentUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
  4. 4.Province of GelderlandArnhemThe Netherlands
  5. 5.Landscape Architecture Group and Land Use Planning GroupWageningen UniversityWageningenThe Netherlands

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