Advertisement

Landscape Ecology

, Volume 26, Issue 1, pp 19–31 | Cite as

Past, present and future of wild ungulates in relation to changes in land use

  • Pelayo AcevedoEmail author
  • Miguel Ángel Farfán
  • Ana Luz Márquez
  • Miguel Delibes-Mateos
  • Raimundo Real
  • Juan Mario Vargas
Research Article

Abstract

In recent decades, Mediterranean landscapes have been experiencing more rapid changes in land use than usual, which have affected the ecology of the species inhabiting this biodiversity hotspot. Some studies have assessed the effect of such changes on biodiversity, but most of these were diachronic studies of population dynamics, or synchronic studies of species habitat selection, whereas few studies have simultaneously taken into account temporal changes in habitat composition and changes in species distribution. This study analysed the effects of land-use changes on the distribution of wild ungulates (Capreolus capreolus, Capra pyrenaica, Cervus elaphus and Sus scrofa). Using favourability function and Markov chain analysis combined with cellular automata, we addressed the following objectives: (i) to examine the environmental determinants of ungulate distribution in the past (1960s) and present (1990s), (ii) to model land use for 2040 to forecast future species distributions and (iii) to assess the biogeographical differences between the above-mentioned study periods (past–present and present–future). Species favourability was predicted to be more widely distributed in the present than in the past, but this increase varied across species. Areas predicted to be favourable in the present should remain stable in the future, but in addition there will be more new favourable areas not previously occupied by these species. The results are discussed from the perspective of the socio-economic relevance of wild ungulates in relation to some unfavourable areas of Mediterranean regions.

Keywords

Bovidae Cervidae Favourability function Global change Markov analysis Predictive models Suidae 

Notes

Acknowledgments

Our gratitude to two anonymous reviewers and Dean Anderson for their useful comments and suggestions on a previous version of the manuscript. Funding was provided by the project CGL2009-11316/BOS—FEDER. Special thanks go to E. Martínez for providing us with the maps of the species abundance for 1960s, and to the Junta de Andalucía for supplying the Annual Hunting Reports. We extend special thanks to J. Olivero for ideas and discussions on methodological aspects. P. Acevedo and M. Delibes-Mateos are currently holding a Juan de la Cierva research contract awarded by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación—Fondo Social Europeo.

Supplementary material

10980_2010_9538_MOESM1_ESM.doc (177 kb)
(DOC 177 kb)

References

  1. Acevedo P, Cassinello J (2009a) Human-induced range expansion of wild ungulates causes niche overlap between previously allopatric species: red deer and Iberian ibex in mountainous regions of southern Spain. Ann Zool Fenn 46:39–50Google Scholar
  2. Acevedo P, Cassinello J (2009b) Biology, ecology and status of Iberian ibex Capra pyrenaica: a critical review and research prospectus. Mammal Rev 39:17–32CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Acevedo P, Delibes-Mateos M, Escudero MA, Vicente J, Marco J, Gortázar C (2005) Environmental constraints in the colonization sequence of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus Linnaeus, 1758) across the Iberian Mountains, Spain. J Biogeogr 32:1671–1680CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Acevedo P, Escudero MA, Muñoz R, Gortázar C (2006) Factors affecting wild boar abundance across an environmental gradient in Spain. Acta Theriol 51:327–336CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Acevedo P, Cassinello J, Gortázar C (2007a) The Iberian ibex is under an expansion trend but displaced to suboptimal habitats by the presence of extensive goat livestock in central Spain. Biodivers Conserv 16:3361–3376CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Acevedo P, Vicente J, Hofle U, Cassinello J, Ruiz-Fons F, Gortázar C (2007b) Estimation of European wild boar relative abundance and aggregation: a novel method in epidemiological risk assessment. Epidemiol Infect 135:519–527CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  7. Acevedo P, Ruiz-Fons F, Vicente J, Reyes-García AR, Alzaga V, Gortázar C (2008) Estimating red deer abundance in a wide range of management situations in Mediterranean habitats. J Zool 276:37–47CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Acevedo P, Ward AI, Real R, Smith GC (2010) Assessing biogeographical relationships of ecologically related species using favourability functions: a case study on British deer. Divers Distrib 16:515–528CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Agarwal C, Green GM, Grove JM, Evans TP, Schweik CM (2002) A review and assessment of land-use change models: dynamics of space, time, and human choice. UFS Technical Report NE-297. U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Research Station, Burlington, VTGoogle Scholar
  10. Araújo MB, Nogués-Bravo D, Reginster I, Rounsevell M, Whittaker RJ (2007) Exposure to European biodiversity to changes in human-induced pressures. Environ Sci Policy 11:38–45CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Barbosa AM, Real R, Vargas JM (2009) Transferability of environmental favourability models in geographic space: the case of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in Portugal and Spain. Ecol Model 220:747–754CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Borcard D, Legendre P, Drapeau P (1992) Partialling out the spatial component of ecological variation. Ecology 73:1045–1055CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Bouma J, Varallyay G, Batjes NH (1998) Principal land use changes anticipated in Europe. Agric Ecosyst Environ 67:103–119CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Calenge C, Maillard D, Fournier P, Fouque C (2004) Efficiency of spreading maize in the garrigues to reduce wild boar (Sus scrofa) damage to Mediterranean vineyard. Eur J Wildl Res 50:112–120Google Scholar
  15. Conway TM, Lathrop RG Jr (2005) Modeling the ecological consequences of land-use policies in an urbanizing region. Environ Manag 35:278–291CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Deadman P, Brown RD (1993) Modelling rural residential settlement patterns with cellular automata. J Environ Manag 37:147–160CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Delibes-Mateos M, Farfán MA, Olivero J, Márquez AL, Vargas JM (2009) Long-term changes in game species over a long period of transformation in the Iberian Mediterranean landscape. Environ Manag 43:1256–1268CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Diniz-Filho JAF, Bini LM, Hawkins BA (2003) Spatial autocorrelation and red herrings in geographical ecology. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 12:53–64CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Eastman JR (2004) Idrisi Kilimanjaro GIS, user guide and software. Clark Labs, Clark University, USAGoogle Scholar
  20. Falcucci A, Maiorano L, Boitani L (2007) Changes in land-use/land-cover patterns in Italy and their implications for biodiversity conservation. Landscape Ecol 22:617–631CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Farfán MA, Vargas JM, Duarte J, Real R (2009) Improving management plans by downscaling hunting yield models: a case study with the red-legged partridge Alectoris rufa in southern Spain. Wildl Biol 15:1–12CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Farr TG, Kobrick M (2000) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission produces a wealth of data. EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 81:583–585Google Scholar
  23. Fernández-Alés R, Martín A, Ortega F, Alés EE (1992) Recent changes in landscape structure and function in a Mediterranean region of SW of Spain (1950–1984). Landscape Ecol 7:3–18CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Fielding AH, Bell JF (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ Conserv 24:38–49CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Gil-Tena A, Brotons L, Saura S (2009) Mediterranean forest dynamics and forest bird distribution changes in the late 20th century. Glob Change Biol 15:474–485CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Gordon IJ (2009) What is the future for wild, large herbivores in human-modified agricultural landscapes? Wildl Biol 15:1–9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Gortázar C, Herrero J, Villafuerte R, Marco J (2000) Historical examination of the status of large mammals in Aragon, Spain. Mammalia 64:411–422CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Gortázar C, Acevedo P, Ruiz-Fons F, Vicente J (2006) Disease risk and overabundance of game species. Eur J Wildl Res 52:81–87CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Graham MH (2003) Confronting multicollinearity in ecological multiple regression. Ecology 84:2809–2815CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Hewison AJM, Vincent JP, Joachim J, Angibault JM, Cargnelutti B, Cibien C (2001) The effects of woodland fragmentation and human activity on roe deer distribution in agricultural landscapes. Can J Zool 79:679–689CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S (1989) Applied logistic regression. Wiley, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  32. Junta de Andalucía (2009) Mapa de usos y coberturas vegetales de Andalucía 1956-1999-2003, escala 1:25,000. Consejería de Medio Ambiente, SevillaGoogle Scholar
  33. Lambin EF, Geist H (eds) (2006) Land-use and land-cover change: local processes and global impacts. Springer-Verlag, BerlinGoogle Scholar
  34. Lambin EF, Turner BL, Geist HJ, Agbola SB, Angelsen A, Bruce JW, Coomes OT, Dirzo R, Fischer G, Folke C, George PS, Homewood K, Imbernon J, Leemansm R, Li X, Moran EF, Mortimore M, Ramakrishnan PS, Richard JF, Skanes H, Steffen W, Stone GD, Svedin U, Veldkamp TA, Vogel C, Xu J (2001) The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths. Glob Environ Change 11:261–269Google Scholar
  35. Legendre P (1993) Spatial autocorrelation: trouble or new paradigm? Ecology 74:1659–1673CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Levinsky I, Skov F, Svenning JC, Rahbek C (2007) Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals. Biodivers Conserv 16:3803–3816CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Lobo JM, Jiménez-Valverde A, Real R (2008) AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 17:145–151CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Lucio A (1991) Ordenación y gestión en caza menor. In: Fuentes A, Sánchez I, Pajuelo L (eds) Manual de ordenación y gestión cinegética. IFEBA, Badajoz, pp 219–255Google Scholar
  39. Lütolf M, Bolliger J, Kienast F, Guisan A (2009) Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions. Biodivers Conserv 18:1329–1347CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Miller J, Franklin J (2002) Modeling the distribution of four vegetation alliances using generalized linear models and classification trees with spatial dependence. Ecol Model 157:227–247CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Millington JDA, Perry GLW, Romero-Calcerrada R (2007) Regression techniques for examining land use/cover change: a case study of a Mediterranean landscape. Ecosystems 10:562–578CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Milner JM, Bonenfant C, Mysterud A, Gaillard JM, Csányi S, Stenseth NC (2006) Temporal and spatial development of red deer harvesting in Europe: biological and cultural factors. J Appl Ecol 43:721–734CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Moreira F, Russo D (2007) Modelling the impact of agricultural abandonment and wildfires on vertebrate diversity in Mediterranean Europe. Landscape Ecol 22:1461–1476CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rover EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Raihi K, Roehrl A, Rogner HH, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  45. Pérez JM, Granados JE, Soriguer RC, Fandos P, Marquez FJ, Crampe JP (2002) Distribution, status and conservation problems of the Spanish Ibex, Capra pyrenaica (Mammalia: Artiodactyla). Mammal Rev 32:26–39CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Peterson LK, Bergen KM, Brown DG, Vashchuk L, Blam Y (2009) Forested land-cover patterns and trends over changing forest management eras in the Siberian Baikal region. For Ecol Manag 257:911–922CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Pocewicz A, Nielsen-Pincus M, Goldberg CS, Johnson MH, Morgan P, Force JE, Waits LP, Vierling L (2008) Predicting land use change: comparison of models based on landowner surveys and historical land cover trends. Landscape Ecol 23:195–210Google Scholar
  48. Real R, Barbosa AM, Porras D, Kin MS, Máquez AL, Guerrero JC, Palomo LJ, Justo ER, Vargas JM (2003) Relative importance of environment, human activity and spatial situation in determining the distribution of terrestrial mammal diversity in Argentina. J Biogeogr 30:939–947Google Scholar
  49. Real R, Barbosa AM, Vargas JM (2006) Obtaining environmental favourability functions from logistic regression. Environ Ecol Stat 13:237–245CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Real R, Márquez AL, Olivero J, Estrada A (2010) Are species distribution models in climate warming scenarios useful for informing emission policy planning? An uncertainty assessment using fuzzy logic. Ecography 33:304–314Google Scholar
  51. Sirami C, Brotons L, Martin JL (2009) Do bird spatial distribution patterns reflect population trends in changing landscapes? Landscape Ecol 24:893–906CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Suarez-Seoane S, Osborne PE, Baudry J (2002) Responses of birds of different biogeographic origins and habitat requirements to agricultural land abandonment in northern Spain. Biol Conserv 105:333–344CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Thuiller W, Alberta C, Araújo MB, Berry PM, Cabeza M, Guisan A, Hickler T, Midgley GF, Paterson J, Schurr FM, Sykes MT, Zimmermann NE (2008) Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions: future challenges. Perspect Plant Ecol 9:137–152Google Scholar
  54. Trees B, Trees G (2003) Scenario visualization for participatory landscape planning—a study from Denmark. Landsc Urban Plan 64:161–178CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. US Geological Survey (1996) GTOPO30. Land processes distributed active archive center (LPDAAC), EROS Data Center. http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/gtopo30.asp.
  56. Vargas JM, Guerrero JC, Farfán MA, Barbosa AM, Real R (2006) Land use and environmental factors affecting red-legged partridge (Alectoris rufa) hunting yields in southern Spain. Eur J Wildl Res 52:188–195CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Vargas JM, Farfán MA, Guerrero JC, Barbosa AM, Real R (2007) Geographical and environmental correlates of big and small game in Andalusia (southern Spain). Wildl Res 34:498–506CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Virkkala R, Heikkinen RK, Leikola N, Luoto M (2008) Projected large-scale range reductions of norther-boreal land bird species due to climate change. Biol Conserv 141:1343–1353CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Vitousek PM, Mooney HA, Lubchenco J, Melillo JM (1997) Human domination of Earth’s ecosystem. Science 277:494–499CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Ward AI (2005) Expanding ranges of wild and feral deer in Great Britain. Mammal Rev 35:165–173CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Zadeh LA (1965) Fuzzy sets. Inf Control 8:338–353CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Zhao S, Peng C, Jiang H, Tian D, Lei X, Zhou X (2006) Land use change in Asia and the ecological consequences. Ecol Res 21:890–896CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Zuur AF, Ieno EN, Elphick CS (2010) A protocol for data exploration to avoid common statistical problems. Methods Ecol Evol 1:3–14CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Pelayo Acevedo
    • 1
    Email author
  • Miguel Ángel Farfán
    • 2
  • Ana Luz Márquez
    • 1
  • Miguel Delibes-Mateos
    • 3
  • Raimundo Real
    • 1
  • Juan Mario Vargas
    • 1
  1. 1.Biogeography, Diversity, and Conservation Research Team, Department of Animal Biology, Faculty of SciencesUniversity of MalagaMalagaSpain
  2. 2.Biogea ConsultoresMalagaSpain
  3. 3.Instituto de Investigación en Recursos CinegéticosIREC (CSIC-UCLM-JCCM)Ciudad RealSpain

Personalised recommendations