Landscape Ecology

, Volume 20, Issue 7, pp 773–789

The Relationship between Environmental Amenities and Changing Human Settlement Patterns between 1980 and 2000 in the Midwestern USA

  • Eric J. Gustafson
  • Roger B. Hammer
  • Volker C. Radeloff
  • Robert S. Potts
Research Article

Abstract

Natural resource amenities may be an attractor as people decide where they will live and invest in property. In the American Midwest these amenities range from lakes to forests to pastoral landscapes, depending on the ecological province. We used simple linear regression models to test the hypotheses that physiographic, land cover (composition and spatial pattern), forest characteristics, land use on undeveloped land, public ownership, soil productivity and proximity to urban centers predict changes in population, housing, and seasonal housing densities over a 10-year interval (1980–1990). We then generated multiple-regression models to predict population, total and seasonal housing density change in the most recent decade (1990–2000) based on ownership and ecological conditions in 1990 and tested them by comparing the predictions to actual change measured by the US Census Bureau. Our results indicate that the independent variables explained between 25 and 40% of the variability in population density change, 42–67% of the variability of total housing density change, and 13–32% of the variability in seasonal housing density change in the 1980s, depending on the province. The strength of the relationships between independent and dependent variables varied by province, and in some cases the sign varied as well. Topographic relief was significantly related to population growth in all provinces, and land cover composition and the presence of water was significantly related to total housing growth in all provinces. There was a surprisingly limited association of any of the independent variables to seasonal housing growth in the northern province, which is commonly perceived to attract seasonal use because of ecological amenities. Proximity to urban centers is related to population and housing density change, but not seasonal housing density change. Our tests indicated that models for population density change showed some utility, but the models for total and seasonal housing density generally performed poorly. Ecologic variables were consistently poor at predicting seasonal housing density change. Our results show that environmental characteristics appear to have some influence on the spatial distribution of population and housing change in the Midwest, although other factors that were not modeled are clearly dominant.

Key words:

Causes of change Ecological amenities Environmental perceptions Housing density Human settlement patterns Landscape change Predictive model 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Ahn, S., Plantinga, A.J., Alig, R.J. 2000Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approachesForest Sci.46363376Google Scholar
  2. Anselin, L. 1988Spatial Econometrics: Methods and ModelsKluwer Academic PublishersBoston, MAUSAGoogle Scholar
  3. Anselin, L., Rey, S. 1991Properties of tests for spatial dependence in linear regression modelsGeogr. Anal.23112131Google Scholar
  4. Bailey, T.C., Gatrell, A.C. 1995Interactive Spatial Data AnalysisLongman LimitedEssex, EnglandGoogle Scholar
  5. Boarnet, M.G. 1998Spillovers and the locational effects of public infrastructureJ. Region. Sci.38381400CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Burridge, P. 1980On the Cliff-Ord test for spatial autocorrelationJ. R. Stat. Soc. B42107108Google Scholar
  7. Carlino, G., Mills, L. 1996Testing neoclassical convergence in regional incomes and earningsRegion. Sci. Urban Econ.26565590CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Deller, S.C., Sue Tsai, T.-H., Marcouiller, D.W., English, D. 2001The role of amenities and quality of life in rural economic growthAm. J. Agric. Econ.83352365CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Dent, J.B., Blackie, M.J. 1979Systems simulation in agricultureApplied Science Publishers Ltd.London, UKGoogle Scholar
  10. Fortin, M.-J. 1999

    Spatial statistics in landscape ecology

    Klopatek, J.MGardner, R.H. eds. Landscape Ecological Analysis: Issues and ApplicationsSpringer-VerlagNew York, USA253279
    Google Scholar
  11. Foster, D.R. 1992Land-use history (1730–1990) and vegetation dynamics in central New EnglandUSAJ. Ecol.80753772Google Scholar
  12. Fuguitt, G.V., Brown, D.L. 1990Residential preferences and population redistribution: 1972–1998Demography27589600PubMedGoogle Scholar
  13. Fuguitt, G.V., Zuiches, J. J. 1975Residential preferences and population redistributionDemography12491504PubMedGoogle Scholar
  14. Gobster, P.H., Haight, R.G., Shriner, D. 2000Landscape change in the Midwest: an integrated research and development programJ. Forest.98914Google Scholar
  15. Griffith, D.A. 1996

    Introduction: the need for spatial statistics

    Arlinghaus, S.L.Griffith, D.A.Arlinghaus, W.C.Drake, W.D.Nystuen, J.D. eds. Practical Handbook of Spatial StatisticsCRC PressNew York, USA115
    Google Scholar
  16. Gustafson, E.J. 1998Quantifying landscape spatial pattern: what is the state of the art?Ecosystems1143156CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Hammer R.B, Voss P.R. and Radelo V.C. 2002. Sub-County Spatial Patterns of Residential Development from 1940–1990 in Wisconsin’s North Woods. University of Wisconsin Center for Demography and Ecology, Working Paper 2002–13.Google Scholar
  18. Hammer, R.B., Stewart, S.I., Winkler, R., Radeloff, V.C., Voss, P.R. 2004Characterizing spatial and temporal residential density patterns across the US Midwest1940–1990Landscape Urban Plan.69183199CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Henry, M.S., Barkley, D.L., Bao, S. 1997The hinterland's stake in metropolitan growth: evidence from selected southern regionsJ. Region. Sci.37479501CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Henry, M.S., Schmitt, B, Piguet, V. 2001Spatial econometric models for simultaneous systems: application to rural community growth in FranceInt. Region. Sci. Rev.24171193CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Johnson, K.M., Fuguitt, G.V. 2000Continuity and change in rural migration patterns, 1950–1995Rural Sociol.652749Google Scholar
  22. Keys, J.,Jr., Carpenter, C., Hooks, S., Koenig, F., McNab, W.H., Russell, W., Smith, M.L. 1995Ecological Units of the Eastern United States: First ApproximationUSDA Forest ServiceSouthern Region, AtlantaGeorgiaUSAGoogle Scholar
  23. Lee, J., Wong, D.W.S. 2001Statistical Analysis with ArcView GISJohn Wiley & Sons Inc.New York, USAGoogle Scholar
  24. LeSage, J.P. 1997Regression analysis of spatial dataJ. Region. Anal. Policy278394Google Scholar
  25. Li, H., Reynolds, J.F. 1993A new contagion index to quantify spatial patterns of landscapesLandscape Ecol.8155162CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Long, L., Nucci, A. 1997The Hoover Index of population concentration: a correction and updateEnviron. Plan. A49431440Google Scholar
  27. Marcouiller, D.W., Kedzior, R., Clendenning, J.G. 2002Natural amenity-led development and rural planningJ. Plan. Lit.16515542CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. McGarigal, K., Marks, B.J. 1995FRAGSTATS: Spatial pattern analysis program for quantifying landscape structureUSDA Forest ServicePacific Northwest Research StationPortlandOregon, USAGeneral Technical ReportPNW-GTR-351.Google Scholar
  29. McGarigal K., Cushman S.A., Neel M.C. and Ene E. 2002. FRAGSTATS: Spatial pattern analysis program for categorical maps. Published on URL server: http://www.-umass.edu/landeco/research/fragstats/fragstats.html. Google Scholar
  30. McGranahan D.A. 1999. Natural Amenities Drive Rural Population Change. USDA Economic Research Service, Agricultural Economic Report 781, Washington, DC, USA. McGranahan D.A. and Beale C.L. 2002. Understanding rural population loss. Rural Am. 17: 2–11. Google Scholar
  31. McGranahan, D.A., Beale, C.L. 2002Understanding rural population lossRural Am.17211Google Scholar
  32. Mendenhall, W., Sincich, T. 1989A Second Course in Business Statistics: Regression AnalysisDellen Publishing CoSan FranciscoCA864Google Scholar
  33. Mendenhall W. and Sincich T. 1989. A Second Course in Business Statistics: Regression Analysis. Dellen Publishing Co, San Francisco, CA, 864pp. Google Scholar
  34. Radeloff, V.C., Hammer, R.B., Voss, P.R., Hagen, A.E., Field, D.R., Mladenoff, D.J. 2001Human demographic trends and landscape level forest management in the northwest Wisconsin Pine BarrensForest Sci.47229241Google Scholar
  35. Radelo V.C., Hammer R.B. and Stewart S.I. in press. Sprawl and forest fragmentation in theUSMidwest from 1940 to 2000. Conserv. Biol.Google Scholar
  36. Rey, S.J., Montouri, B.D. 1999US regional income convergence: A spatial econometric perspectiveRegional Stud.33143156CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Ripple, W.J., Bradshaw, G.A., Spies, T.A. 1991Measuring landscape pattern in the Cascade Range of Oregon USABiol. Conserv.577388CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Schnaiberg, J., Riera, J., Turner, M.G., Voss, P.R. 2002Explaining human settlement patterns in a recreational lake district: Vilas County, Wisconsin, USAEnviron. Manage.302434CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  39. Shands, W.E., Healy, R.G. 1977The Lands Nobody WantedThe Conservation FoundationWashington, DC, USAGoogle Scholar
  40. So, K.S., Orazem, P.F., Otto, D.M. 2001The effects of housing prices, wages, and commuting time on joint residential and job location choicesAm. J. Agric. Econ.8310361048CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Stewart, S.I., Stynes, D.J. 1994Toward a dynamic model of complex tourism choices: the seasonal home location decisionJ. Travel Tourism Market.36988CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Tobler, W. 1970A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit regionEcon. Geogr.46234240SupplementGoogle Scholar
  43. US Department of Agriculture1994State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) data base: data use informationUSDA Natural Resource Conservation ServiceNational Soil Survey Center Misc. Pub. 1492.Washington, DC, USAGoogle Scholar
  44. USGS1990Digital elevation models: US Geological Survey Data User's Guide 5US Geological SurveyReston, VirginiaUSAGoogle Scholar
  45. Vogelmann, J.E., Howard, S.M., Yang, L., Larson, C.R., Wylie, B.K., Van Driel, N. 2001Completion of the 1990s national land cover data set for the conterminous United States from Landsat Thematic Mapper data and ancillary data sourcesPhotogr. Eng. Remote Sens.67650662Google Scholar
  46. Wear, D.N., Bolstad, P. 1998Land-use changes in southern Appalachian landscapes: spatial analysis and forecast evaluationEcosystems1575594CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  • Eric J. Gustafson
    • 1
  • Roger B. Hammer
    • 2
  • Volker C. Radeloff
    • 3
  • Robert S. Potts
    • 1
  1. 1.USDA Forest ServiceNorth Central Research StationRhinelanderUSA
  2. 2.Applied Population Laboratory, Department of Rural SociologyUniversity of Wisconsin-MadisonMadisonUSA
  3. 3.Department of Forest Ecology and ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin-MadisonMadisonUSA

Personalised recommendations