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Journal of Youth and Adolescence

, Volume 38, Issue 3, pp 384–400 | Cite as

Can We Make Accurate Long-term Predictions About Patterns of De-escalation in Offending Behavior?

  • Lila KazemianEmail author
  • David P. Farrington
  • Marc Le Blanc
Empirical Research
First Online:

Abstract

This study consists of a comparative analysis of patterns of de-escalation between ages 17–18 and 32, based on data from two well-known prospective longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (a study of 411 working-class males in London) and the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study (a sample of 470 adjudicated French-Canadian males). Analyses focus on within-individual change, with individuals serving as their own controls. In this regard, the magnitude of measured change is relative to the past degree of involvement in offending. These results are contrasted with predictors of between-individual differences in offending behavior at age 32. We investigate the respective roles of cognitive predispositions and social bonds in the prediction of patterns of de-escalation, and assess whether it is possible to make relatively long-term predictions (over a 15-year period) about offending in adulthood. Findings suggest that traditional measures of social bonds and cognitive predispositions measured at age 17–18 are generally weak predictors of de-escalation up to age 32. However, these measures are stronger predictors of between-individual differences in offending gravity. These findings highlight the difficulties in making accurate long-term predictions about changes in individual offending patterns early in the criminal career.

Keywords

De-escalation Desistance Developmental Within-individual Between-individual Comparative research Social bonds Self-control 
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Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC), the Fonds pour la Formation des Chercheurs et l’Aide à la Recherche (Fonds FCAR), the Conseil Québécois de la Recherche Sociale (CQRS), and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC, Award number PTA-026-27-1035) for its financial support.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Lila Kazemian
    • 1
    Email author
  • David P. Farrington
    • 2
  • Marc Le Blanc
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of SociologyJohn Jay College of Criminal JusticeNew YorkUSA
  2. 2.Institute of CriminologyUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK
  3. 3.Université de Montréal, School of PsychoeducationMontrealCanada

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