Journal of Seismology

, Volume 19, Issue 3, pp 721–739 | Cite as

Modeling earthquake dynamics

Original Article


In this paper, we investigate questions arising in Parsons and Geist (Bull Seismol Soc Am 102:1–11, 2012). Pseudo causal models connecting magnitudes and waiting times are considered, through generalized regression. We do use conditional model (magnitude given previous waiting time, and conversely) as an extension to joint distribution model described in Nikoloulopoulos and Karlis (Environmetrics 19: 251–269, 2008). On the one hand, we fit a Pareto distribution for earthquake magnitudes, where the tail index is a function of waiting time following previous earthquake; on the other hand, waiting times are modeled using a Gamma or a Weibull distribution, where parameters are functions of the magnitude of the previous earthquake. We use those two models, alternatively, to generate the dynamics of earthquake occurrence, and to estimate the probability of occurrence of several earthquakes within a year or a decade.


Duration Earthquakes Generalized linear models Seismic gap hypothesis 


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.UQAMMontréalCanada

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