Advertisement

Journal of Seismology

, Volume 19, Issue 1, pp 1–8 | Cite as

Local geodetic and seismic energy balance for shallow earthquake prediction

  • Flavio CannavóEmail author
  • Alessandra Arena
  • Carmelo Monaco
Original Article

Abstract

Earthquake analysis for prediction purposes is a delicate and still open problem largely debated among scientists. In this work, we want to show that a successful time-predictable model is possible if based on large instrumental data from dense monitoring networks. To this aim, we propose a new simple data-driven and quantitative methodology which takes into account the accumulated geodetic strain and the seismically-released strain to calculate a balance of energies. The proposed index quantifies the state of energy of the selected area and allows us to evaluate better the ingoing potential seismic risk, giving a new tool to read recurrence of small-scale and shallow earthquakes. In spite of its intrinsic simple formulation, the application of the methodology has been successfully simulated in the Eastern flank of Mt. Etna (Italy) by tuning it in the period 2007–2011 and testing it in the period 2012–2013, allowing us to predict, within days, the earthquakes with highest magnitude.

Keywords

Earthquake prediction Strain analysis Time-predictable model 

Notes

Acknowledgments

GPS and Analisi Dati Sismici groups of Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, is kindly acknowledged for providing the EQ database (INGV, Catania (http://www.ct.ingv.it/ufs/analisti/catalogolist.php)). Our research was partially supported by funds of the agreement V3 between INGV and Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC); we thank R. Azzaro and S. D’Amico for this support. FC would like to thank Marco Aloisi, Andrea Cannata, Pablo Gonzalez, Asta Miklius, and Mike Poland for their useful suggestions. We thank S. Ciancitto for correcting and improving the English of this manuscript. We would like to express our gratitude to the Editor M. Garcia-Fernandez, to Prof. V.G. Kossobokov, and to the anonymous referees who helped us with their comment to improve the manuscript.

References

  1. Aloisi M, Bonaccorso A, Cannavò F, Gambino S, Mattia M, Puglisi G, Boschi E (2009) A new dyke intrusion style for the Mount Etna May 2008 eruption modelled through continuous tilt and GPS data. Terra Nova 21:316–321. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3121.2009.00889.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Azzaro R, Branca S, Gwinner K, Coltelli M (2012) The volcano-tectonic map of Etna volcano, 1: 100.000 scale: an integrated approach based on a morphotectonic analysis from high-resolution DEM constrained by geologic, active faulting and seismotectonic data. Ital J Geosci 131(1):153–170Google Scholar
  3. Bak P (1997) How nature works. Oxford University Press, UKGoogle Scholar
  4. Cannavò F (2012) Sensitivity analysis for volcanic source modeling quality assessment and model selection. Comput Geosci 44:52–59. doi: 10.1016/j.cageo.2012.03.008 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Deniz I, Ozener H (2010) Estimation of strain accumulation of densification network in Northern Marmara Region, Turkey. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10(10):2135–2143CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Fedotov SA, Sobolev GA, Boldyrev SA, Gusev AA, Kondratenko AM, Potapova OV, Slavina LB, Theophylaktov VD, Khramov AA, Shirokov VA (1977) Long- and short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatka. Tectonophysics 37(4):305–321, ISSN 0040–1951CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Gutenberg B, Richter CF (1956) Magnitude and energy of earthquakes. Ann Geofis 9:1–15Google Scholar
  8. Hanks TC (1992) Small earthquakes, tectonic forces. Science 256:1430–1432CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Hanks TC, Kanamori H (1979) A moment magnitude scale. J Geophys Res 84:2348–2350CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Herring TA (2004) GLOBK: Global Kalman filter VLBI and GPS analysis program, version 10.2, user’s manual. Mass. Inst. of Technol, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  11. King RW, Bock Y (2004) Documentation of the MIT GPS Analysis Software: GAMIT, release 10.2, user’s manual. Mass. Inst. of Technol, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  12. Murray J, Segall P (2002) Testing time-predictable earthquake recurrence by direct measurement of strain accumulation and release. Nature 419:287–291. doi: 10.1038/nature00984 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Palano M, Rossi M, Cannavò F, Bruno V, Aloisi M, Pellegrino D, Pulvirenti M, Siligato G, Mattia M (2010) Etn@ref: a geodetic reference frame for Mt. Etna GPS networks. Ann Geophys 53(4):49–57Google Scholar
  14. Reid H (1910) The mechanics of the earthquake: the California earth-quake of April 18, 1906, report, vol 2, 192 pp., State Earthquake Invest. Comm.. Carnegie Inst. of Wash, WashingtonGoogle Scholar
  15. Rubinstein JL, Ellsworth WL, Beeler N, Kilgore B, Lockner DA, Savage HM (2011) Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 2: laboratory earthquakes. J Geophys Res. doi: 10.1029/2011JB008723 Google Scholar
  16. Savage JC, Simpson RW (1997) Surface strain accumulation and the seismic moment tensor. Bull Seismol Soc Am 87:1345–1353Google Scholar
  17. Shimazaki K, Nakata T (1980) Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes. Geophys Res Lett 7:279–282. doi: 10.1029/GL007i004p00279 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Smith WHF, Wessel P (1990) Gridding with continuous curvature splines intension. Geophysics 55(3):293–305CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Ward SN (1994) Constraints on the seismotectonics of the central Mediterranean from very long baseline interferometry. Geophys J Int 117:44–452CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Wells DL, Coppersmith KJ (1994) New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement. Bull Seismol Soc Am 84:974–1002Google Scholar
  21. Zavyalov AD (2005) Medium-term prediction of earthquakes from a set of criteria: principles, methods, and implementation. Russ J Earth Sci, 7(1)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Flavio Cannavó
    • 1
    Email author
  • Alessandra Arena
    • 1
  • Carmelo Monaco
    • 2
  1. 1.Osservatorio EtneoIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaCataniaItaly
  2. 2.Dipartimento di Science della TerraUniversità degli Studi di CataniaCataniaItaly

Personalised recommendations