Journal of Seismology

, Volume 16, Issue 3, pp 451–473 | Cite as

Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe

  • Elise DelavaudEmail author
  • Fabrice Cotton
  • Sinan Akkar
  • Frank Scherbaum
  • Laurentiu Danciu
  • Céline Beauval
  • Stéphane Drouet
  • John Douglas
  • Roberto Basili
  • M. Abdullah Sandikkaya
  • Margaret Segou
  • Ezio Faccioli
  • Nikos Theodoulidis
Original Article


The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234–3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazard.


Logic trees Ground-motion prediction equations Expert judgment Model selection Seismic hazard assessment 



The main part of this work has been funded by the EC-Research Framework programme FP7, Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe, contract number 226967. The authors would like to warmly thank Julian Bommer, Hilmar Bungum, and Fabian Bonilla for their expert role and their key contribution to the ground-motion prediction equation evaluation and weighting. We thank an anonymous reviewer and Jochen Woessner for their comments on the first draft of this article. This paper also benefited from the feedbacks and interaction with Donat Fäh, Ben Edwards, Marco Pagani, Kyriazis Pitilakis, Pierre-Yves Bard, and Carola Di Alessandro. This work strongly benefited from the constant support of Jochen Woessner and Domenico Giardini, manager and coordinator of the SHARE FP7 project.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Elise Delavaud
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Fabrice Cotton
    • 1
  • Sinan Akkar
    • 3
  • Frank Scherbaum
    • 4
  • Laurentiu Danciu
    • 2
  • Céline Beauval
    • 1
  • Stéphane Drouet
    • 1
  • John Douglas
    • 5
  • Roberto Basili
    • 6
  • M. Abdullah Sandikkaya
    • 3
  • Margaret Segou
    • 3
  • Ezio Faccioli
    • 7
  • Nikos Theodoulidis
    • 8
  1. 1.ISTerreUniversité Joseph Fourier, CNRSGrenobleFrance
  2. 2.Swiss Seismological Service, Institute of GeophysicsETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
  3. 3.Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Department of Civil EngineeringMETUAnkaraTurkey
  4. 4.Institute of Earth and Environmental SciencesUniversity of PotsdamGolmGermany
  5. 5.RIS/RSI, BRGMOrléans Cedex 2France
  6. 6.Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaRomeItaly
  7. 7.Politecnico di MilanoMilanItaly
  8. 8.ITSAKThessalonikiGreece

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