Journal of Seismology

, 14:27 | Cite as

Occurrence probability of moderate to large earthquakes in Italy based on new geophysical methods

  • Dario Slejko
  • Alessandro Caporali
  • Mark Stirling
  • Salvatore Barba
Original article


We develop new approaches to calculating 30-year probabilities for occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in Italy. Geodetic techniques and finite-element modelling, aimed to reproduce a large amount of neotectonic data using thin-shell finite element, are used to separately calculate the expected seismicity rates inside seismogenic areas (polygons containing mapped faults and/or suspected or modelled faults). Thirty-year earthquake probabilities obtained from the two approaches show similarities in most of Italy: the largest probabilities are found in the southern Apennines, where they reach values between 10% and 20% for earthquakes of M W ≥ 6.0, and lower than 10% for events with an M W ≥ 6.5.


Seismic hazard Strong earthquakes Probability Italy 


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Dario Slejko
    • 1
  • Alessandro Caporali
    • 2
  • Mark Stirling
    • 3
  • Salvatore Barba
    • 4
  1. 1.Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica SperimentaleSgonico (Trieste)Italy
  2. 2.University of PaduaPaduaItaly
  3. 3.GNS ScienceLower HuttNew Zealand
  4. 4.Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaRomeItaly

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