Journal of Family and Economic Issues

, Volume 34, Issue 1, pp 16–28 | Cite as

Modeling the Impact of the Affordable Care Act and the Individual Mandate on Californians

  • Dylan H. RobyEmail author
  • Greg Watson
  • Ken Jacobs
  • Dave Graham-Squire
  • Christina M. Kinane
  • Daphna Gans
  • Jack Needleman
  • Gerald F. Kominski
Original Paper


The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) was designed to provide health insurance to uninsured or underinsured individuals. We used the California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM) model to predict the experience of consumers in California, who will be faced with new insurance options through Medicaid, employer-sponsored insurance, and the individual market in 2014 and beyond. We explored the response and characteristics of Californians who will and will not secure insurance coverage, with and without the “individual mandate” or minimum coverage requirement (MCR). We found 1.8 million Californians (38 %) of the 4.7 million eligible uninsured will secure coverage by 2019 with the MCR, while only 839,000 (18 % of the eligible uninsured) would obtain coverage without it.


Health Insurance Health Reform Insurance Markets Micro-Simulation Modeling 



The authors wish to thank Mr. Richard Figueroa and Mr. Robert Phillips, our project officers at The California Endowment, for their support in developing the CalSIM model and this research. We also thank Dr. Xiao Chen and Mr. Yafeng Zheng of UCLA and Ms. Miranda Dietz of UC Berkeley for their work on the CalSIM model programming and development.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Dylan H. Roby
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Greg Watson
    • 1
  • Ken Jacobs
    • 3
  • Dave Graham-Squire
    • 3
  • Christina M. Kinane
    • 4
  • Daphna Gans
    • 1
    • 5
  • Jack Needleman
    • 1
    • 2
  • Gerald F. Kominski
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.UCLA Center for Health Policy ResearchLos AngelesUSA
  2. 2.Department of Health Policy and ManagementUCLA Fielding School of Public HealthLos AngelesUSA
  3. 3.UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and EducationBerkeleyUSA
  4. 4.Department of Political ScienceUniversity of MichiganAnn ArborUSA
  5. 5.Department of Community Health SciencesUCLA Fielding School of Public HealthLos AngelesUSA

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