Estimating the real growth effects of blockbuster art exhibits: A time series approach
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This paper addresses the evaluation of real growth forecasts made by impact studies. Intervention analysis is used to estimate the ex post impact of blockbuster exhibits on economic growth in Jackson, Mississippi (chosen because state and local governments provide regular subsidies to finance the exhibitions). Non-farm employment measures real economic growth and dummy variables capture the occurrence of the exhibitions. Univariate time series techniques identify and estimate a stationary process after filtering the data for seasonal and cyclical effects. The analysis estimates the short run impact on Jackson’s filtered employment series due to the blockbuster exhibitions as approximately 700 jobs.
KeywordsEx post evaluation of ex ante forecasts Blockbuster art exhibits Intervention analysis Job creation Local economic growth
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