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Surveys in Geophysics

, Volume 35, Issue 2, pp 449–478 | Cite as

On the Correction of Spatial and Statistical Uncertainties in Systematic Measurements of 222Rn for Earthquake Prediction

  • Fatih Külahcı
  • Zekâi Şen
Article

Abstract

In earthquake prediction studies, the regional behaviour of accurate 222Rn measurements at a set of sites plays a significant role. Here, measurements are obtained using active and passive radon detector systems in an earthquake-active region of Turkey. Two new methods are proposed to explain the spatial behaviours and the statistical uncertainties in the 222Rn emission measurements along fault lines in relation to earthquake occurrence. The absolute point cumulative semivariogram (APCSV) and perturbation method (PM) help to depict the spatial distribution patterns of 222Rn in addition to the joint effects of the K dr, the radon distribution coefficient, and the perturbation radon distribution coefficient (PRDC). The K dr coefficient assists in identifying the spatial distributional behaviour in 222Rn concentrations and their migration along the Earth’s surface layers. The PRDC considers not only the arithmetic averages but also the variances (or standard deviations) and the correlation coefficients, in addition to the size of the error among the 222Rn measurements. The applications of these methodologies are performed for 13,000 222Rn measurements that are deemed to be sufficient for the characterization of tectonics in the Keban Reservoir along the East Anatolian Fault System (EAFS) in Turkey. The results are evaluated for the İçme earthquake (M L 5.4, 5.7 km, 23 June 2011), which occurred in the vicinity of the EAFS.

Keywords

Earthquake prediction Cumulative semivariogram Fault line Earthquake precursors Radon observations Spatial analysis of observed variations 

Abbreviations

Kd

Classical distribution coefficient

Kdr

Radon distribution coefficient

ReV

Regionalized variable

SV

Classical semivariogram

CSV

Cumulative semivariogram

PCSV

Point cumulative semivariogram

APCSV

Absolute point cumulative semivariogram

STPCSV

Spatio-temporal point cumulative semivariogram

TPCSV

Trigonometric point cumulative semivariogram

PRDC

Perturbation radon distribution coefficient

PM

Perturbation method

Rns

Total radon concentration in the solid phase

Rnw

Total radon concentration in the liquid phase

cps

Count per second

cpm

Count per minute

Notes

Acknowledgments

We thank our colleagues at Fırat University, namely Dr. Murat İnceöz, Dr. Seçil Niksarlıoğlu, Dr. Şule Karabulut, Dr. Mücahit Yılmaz, and Dr. Sultan Şahin for technical assistance, and we also thank KOERI (Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Turkey) for the earthquake data in the study area. This work is partially supported by Fırat University under Project No. FÜBAP-894. We would like to thank the local community (approximately 12 people) for assistance with very hard field studies. Finally, the authors are grateful for constructive criticisms provided by Prof. Michael Rycroft (Editor-in-Chief) and anonymous reviewers whose insights improved the quality of the article.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Nuclear Physics Division, Department of Physics, Faculty of ScienceFırat UniversityElazigTurkey
  2. 2.Hydraulic and Water Resources Division, Civil Engineering FacultyIstanbul Technical UniversityMaslak, IstanbulTurkey

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