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Cosmic Rays and Climate

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Abstract

Among the most puzzling questions in climate change is that of solar-climate variability, which has attracted the attention of scientists for more than two centuries. Until recently, even the existence of solar-climate variability has been controversial—perhaps because the observations had largely involved correlations between climate and the sunspot cycle that had persisted for only a few decades. Over the last few years, however, diverse reconstructions of past climate change have revealed clear associations with cosmic ray variations recorded in cosmogenic isotope archives, providing persuasive evidence for solar or cosmic ray forcing of the climate. However, despite the increasing evidence of its importance, solar-climate variability is likely to remain controversial until a physical mechanism is established. Although this remains a mystery, observations suggest that cloud cover may be influenced by cosmic rays, which are modulated by the solar wind and, on longer time scales, by the geomagnetic field and by the galactic environment of Earth. Two different classes of microphysical mechanisms have been proposed to connect cosmic rays with clouds: firstly, an influence of cosmic rays on the production of cloud condensation nuclei and, secondly, an influence of cosmic rays on the global electrical circuit in the atmosphere and, in turn, on ice nucleation and other cloud microphysical processes. Considerable progress on understanding ion–aerosol–cloud processes has been made in recent years, and the results are suggestive of a physically-plausible link between cosmic rays, clouds and climate. However, a concerted effort is now required to carry out definitive laboratory measurements of the fundamental physical and chemical processes involved, and to evaluate their climatic significance with dedicated field observations and modelling studies.

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Notes

  1. Greenhouse gases are not included since, prior to the twentieth century, short-term changes of greenhouse gases, such as occurred during glacial-interglacial transitions, are found to be a feedback of the climate system and not a primary forcing agent (Mudelsee 2001).

  2. We do not include here the contribution of cosmic ray showers as the likely trigger for lightning, by injecting MeV-energy electrons into electrified clouds, which can then avalanche and lead to runaway breakdown.

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Acknowledgements

I warmly thank my colleagues in the CLOUD collaboration for many stimulating discussions. I would also like to acknowledge Daniel Rosenfeld for suggesting the possible importance of cosmic rays for marine stratocumulus clouds. Finally I thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments on the paper.

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    Jasper Kirkby

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Kirkby, J. Cosmic Rays and Climate. Surv Geophys 28, 333–375 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-008-9030-6

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