Advertisement

GeoJournal

pp 1–14 | Cite as

Climate change effects on agricultural production: insights for adaptation strategy from the context of smallholder farmers in Dura catchment, northern Ethiopia

  • Gebreyesus Brhane TesfahunegnEmail author
  • Teklebirhan Arefaine Gebru
Article
  • 40 Downloads

Abstract

Few efforts have been reported about climate change effects on agriculture production from smallholder farmers’ conditions. The objective of this study was to assess smallholder farmers’ understanding on the effects of climate change on agriculture production in Dura catchment, northern Ethiopia. Data were collected using group discussions and semi-structured interview of 79 sample household heads from the study catchment. Data were subjected to descriptive, Chi square and t test. The majority of the respondents reported that variability in management practices and farm and institutional attributes influenced significantly farmers understanding of the effects of climate change on agricultural production. A significantly higher proportion of farmers (98%) identified food and feed shortage as the major indicators of the effects of climate change on production. Significantly higher proportions of farmers reported that there are crop types towards disappearing from farmers fields (e.g., barley, sorghum) and livestock (e.g., horse), reduced in area coverage (e.g., lentil, faba bean), expanded in area coverage (e.g., tef, maize, chick pea, cauliflower, tomato) in response to climatic change effects. Farmers’ also classified the different crops into different sensitivity classes as 57% of the farmers reported that tef is not sensitive to climate change effects. A significantly higher proportion of farmers (98%) confirmed that one of the potential and serous impacts of climate change is to decrease in economics of the community. Promotion of robust adaptation strategies such as water harvesting, irrigation, stress tolerant crop varieties, in the context of climate change are thus suggested for the conditions of smallholder farmers’ in northern Ethiopia.

Keywords

Adaptation strategy Agricultural technology Crop type Management practice 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This research was financially supported by University of Aksum under the terms of Grant No. referenced as AKU/IG/RCSD/1092/07. The authors gratefully acknowledge for the financial support by Aksum University for this research. The authors are also highly grateful for the cooperation of the farmers and assistance offered by the local administration and development agents during the study data collection.

References

  1. Adams, R., McCarl, B., Segerson, K., Rosenzweig, C., Bryant, K., Dixon, B., et al. (1999). The economic effects of climate change on US agriculture. In R. Mendelsohn & J. Neumann (Eds.), The impact of climate change on the United States Economy (pp. 18–54). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Agresti, A. (1996). An introduction to categorical data analysis. NY: Wiley.Google Scholar
  3. Ahanger, R. A., Bhat, H. A., Bhat, T. A., Ganie, S. A., Lone, A. A., Wani, I. A., et al. (2013). Impact of climate change on plant diseases. International Journal of Modern Plant and Animal Sciences, 1(3), 105–115.Google Scholar
  4. Alam, M. M., Siwar, C., Toriman, B. E., Molla, R. I., & Talib, B. (2012). Climate change induced adaptation by paddy farmers in Malaysia. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 17(2), 173–186.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Ali, S., Liu, Y., Ishaq, M., Shah, T., Ilyas, A., & Din, I. U. (2017). Climate change and its impact on the yield of major food crops: Evidence from Pakistan. Foods, 6(39), 1–19.Google Scholar
  6. Allen, L. H., Boote, K. J., Jones, J. W., Jones, P. H., Valle, R. R., Acock, B., et al. (1987). Response of vegetation to rising carbon dioxide: Photosynthesis, biomass, and seed yield of soybean. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 1(1), 1–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Anderson, E. B. (1996). Introduction to the statistical analysis of categorical data. NY: Springer.Google Scholar
  8. Appiah, D. O., Abalo, E. M., & Eshun, G. (2019). Arable and forest land user rent in a peri-urban district, Ghana. GeoJournal, 15, 18.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-019-10044-y.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Araya, A., Keesstra, S. D., & Stroosnijder, L. (2010). Simulating yield response to water of Teff (Eragrostis tef) with FAO’s AquaCrop model. Field Crops Research, 116(1–2), 196–204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Asmamaw, M. (2011). The role of area closure for soil and woody vegetation rehabilitation in Kewot District, North Shewa. MSc Thesis, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia.Google Scholar
  11. Aydinalp, C., & Cresser, M. S. (2008). The Effects of global climate change on agriculture. American-Eurasian Journal of Agriculture & Environmental Science, 3(5), 672–676.Google Scholar
  12. Baethgen, W. E., & Magrin, G. O. (1995). Assessing the impacts of climate change on winter crop production in Uruguay and Argentina using crop simulation models. In C. Rosenzweig & A. Iglesias (Eds.), Climate change and agriculture: Analysis of potential international impacts (Vol. 59, pp. 207–228). Madison WI: American Society of Agronomy Special Publication.Google Scholar
  13. Chen, J., Brissette, F. P., & Leconte, R. (2014). Assessing regression-based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America. Hydrological Processes, 28(9), 3482–3504.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Cline, W. (2007). Global warming and agriculture. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
  15. Cochran, W. G. (1963). Sampling techniques (2nd ed., pp. 206–220). New York: Wiley. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 63-7553.Google Scholar
  16. Conde, C., Liverman, D., Flores, M., Ferror, R., Araujao, R., Betancourt, E., et al. (1998). Vulnerability of rainfed maize crops in Mexico to climate change. Climate Research, 9, 17–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. CSA (Central Statistics Agency). (2016). Agricultural abstracts of the federal democratic Republic of Ethiopia. Ethiopia: Addis Ababa.Google Scholar
  18. Cure, J. D., & Acock, B. (1986). Crop responses to carbon dioxide doubling: A literature survey. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 38(1–3), 127–145.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Deressa, T. T., Hassan, R. M., Ringler, C., Alemu, T., & Yusuf, M. (2009). Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change, 19(2), 248–255.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Deschenes, O., & Greenstone, M. (2007). The economic impacts of climate change: Evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather. American Economic Review, 97(1), 354–385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Dinar, A., Hassan, R., Mendelsohn, R., & Benhin, J. (2008). Climate change and agriculture in Africa: Impact assessment and adaptation strategies (pp. 100–106). London: Earthscan.Google Scholar
  22. Donatelli, M., Magarey, R. D., Bregaglio, S., Willocquet, L., Whish, J. P. M., & Savary, S. (2017). Modelling the impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems. Agricultural Systems, 155, 213–224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Eakin, H., & Luers, A. L. (2006). Assessing the vulnerability of social-environmental systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 31, 365–394.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Elad, Y., & Pertot, I. (2014). Climate change impacts on plant pathogens and plant diseases. Journal of Crop Improvement, 28(1), 99–139.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. EMA (Ethiopian Mapping Agency). (1997). Ethiopia 1:50000 topographic maps: Aksum Sheet”. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Ethiopian Mapping Agency.Google Scholar
  26. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). (1998). The soil and terrain database for Northeastern Africa (CDROM). Rome: FAO.Google Scholar
  27. Farauta, B.K., Egbule, C.L., Idrisa, Y.L., & Agu, V.C. (2011). Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies in northern Nigeria: An empirical assessment. African Technology Policy Studies Network, Research Paper No. 15.Google Scholar
  28. FDRE (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia). (2011). The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) climate-resilient green economy strategy Document. Ethiopia: Addis Ababa.Google Scholar
  29. Fischer, G., Tubiello, F. N., Velthuizen, H. V., & Wiberg, D. A. (2007). Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: Effects of mitigation, 1990–2080. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(7), 1083–1107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Henkel, R. E. (1976). Tests of significance. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). (2007). Climate change—impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In J. J. McCarthy, O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken, & K. S. White (Eds.), Contribution of working group JP II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (p. 976). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  32. Kabubo-Mariara, J. (2009). Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations. Ecological Economics, 68(7), 1915–1924.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Kahiluoto, H. & Rötter, R. (2009). Implications of and possible responses to climate change. University of Helsinki Department of Economics and Management, Discussion Papers no 39. Helsinki.Google Scholar
  34. Kang, Y., Khan, S., & Ma, X. (2009). Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity and food security—A review. Progress in Natural Science, 19, 1665–1674.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Kemausuor, F., Dwamena, E., Bart-Plange, A., & Kyei-Baffour, N. (2011). Farmers’ perception of climate change in the Ejura-Sekyedumase district of Ghana. ARPN Journal of Agricultural and Biological Science, 6(10), 26–37.Google Scholar
  36. Lawson, E. T., Alare, R. S., Salifu, A. R. Y., & Thompson-Hall, M. (2019). Dealing with climate change in semi-arid Ghana: Understanding intersectional perceptions and adaptation strategies of women farmers. GeoJournal.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-019-09974-4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Lemi, T., & Hailu, F. (2019). Effects of Climate Change Variability on Agricultural Productivity. A review. International Journal of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resources, 17(1), IJESNR.MS.ID.555953.Google Scholar
  38. Lipiec, J., Doussan, C., Nosalewicz, A., & Kondracka, K. (2013). Effect of drought and heat stresses on plant growth and yield: A review. International Agrophysics, 27(4), 463–477.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Lobell, D. B., & Field, C. B. (2011). Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environmental Research Letters, 2, 014002.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Lobell, D. B., Cahill, K. N., & Field, C. B. (2007). Historical effects of temperature and precipitation on California crop yields. Climatic Change, 81(2), 187–203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W., & Costa-Roberts, J. (2011). Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science, 333(6042), 616–620.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Maantay, J., & Becker, S. (2012). The health impacts of global climate change: A geographic perspective. Applied Geography, 33(1), 1–3.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Maddison, D. (2007). The perception of and adaptation to climate change in Africa, Policy Research Working Paper WPS4308, The World Bank, Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team.Google Scholar
  44. Mahato, A. (2014). Climate change and its impact on agriculture. International Journal of Scientific and Research, 4(4), 1–6.Google Scholar
  45. Maraun, D., Wetterhall, F., Ireson, A.M., et al. (2010). Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user. Reviews of Geophysics, 48(3), RG3003, 8755-1209.Google Scholar
  46. Matsui, T., Namuco, O. S., Ziska, L. H., & Horie, T. (1997). Effects of high temperature and CO2 concentration on spikelet sterility in indica rice. Field Crops Research, 51, 213–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Mendelsohn, R. (2008). The Impact of climate change on agriculture in developing countries. Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 1(1), 5–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Mendelsohn, R., Basist, A., Dinar, A., & Kurukulasuriya, P. (2007). What explains agricultural performance: Climate normals or climate variance? Climatic Change, 81(1), 85–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A., & Williams, L. (2006). The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries. Environment and Development Economics, 11(2), 159–178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W., & Shaw, D. (1994). Measuring the impact of global warming on agriculture. American Economic Review, 84(4), 753–771.Google Scholar
  51. Mirza, M. M. Q. (1997). Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Flooding in Bangladesh. Ph.D. Thesis, International Global Change Institute (IGCI), University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.Google Scholar
  52. Mondoro, A., Frangopol, D. M., & Liu, L. (2018). Bridge adaptation and management under climate change uncertainties: A review. Natural Hazards Review, 19(1), 04017023.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Mubaya, C. P., Njuki, J., Liwenga, E., Mutsvangwa, E. P., & Mugabe, F. T. (2010). Perceived impacts of climate related parameters on smallholder farmers in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 12(5), 170–186.Google Scholar
  54. Nordhaus, W. D. (1991). To slow or not to slow: The economics of the greenhouse effect. The Economic Journal, 101(407), 920–937.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Okonya, S. J., Syndikus, K., & Kroschel, J. (2013). Farmers’ Perception of and Coping Strategies to Climate Change: evidence from six agroecological zones of Uganda. Journal of Agricultural Science, 5(8), 252–263.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Omoyo, N., Wakhungu, J., & Oteng’I, S. (2015). Effects of climate variability on maize yield in the arid and semi arid lands of lower eastern Kenya. Agriculture & Food Security, 4(8), 1–13.Google Scholar
  57. Osada, A., Saciplapa, V., Rahong, M., Dhammanuvong, S., & Chakrabandho, H. (1973). Abnormal occurrence of empty grains of indica rice plants in the dry, hot season in Thailand. Proceedings of the Crop Science Society of Japan, 42, 103–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., & Hanson, C. E. (2007). Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the third assessment report on intergovernmental panel on climate change (p. 1000). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  59. Pathak, T. B., Maskey, M. L., Dahlberg, J. A., Bali, K. M., Kearns, F., & Zaccaria, D. (2018). Climate change trends and impacts on California agriculture: A detailed review. Agronomy, 8(25), 1–27.Google Scholar
  60. Pautasso, M., Döring, T. F., Garbelotto, M., Pellis, L., & Jeger, M. J. (2012). Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—Opinions and trends. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 133(1), 295–313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Pearce, D., Cline, W., Achanta, A., Fankhauser, S., Pachauri, R., Tol, R., et al. (1996). The social costs of climate change: Greenhouse damage and benefits of control. In J. Bruce, H. Lee, & E. Haites (Eds.), Climate change 1995: Economic and social dimensions of climate change (pp. 179–224). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  62. Porsani, J., Caretta, M. A., & Lehtila, K. (2018). Large-scale land acquisitions aggravate the feminization of poverty: Findings from a case study in Mozambique. GeoJournal, 84(1), 215–236.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Raj, D. (1972). The design of sample surveys. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company.Google Scholar
  64. Reilly, J., Baethgen, W., Chege, F., van de Geijn, S., Erda, L., Iglesias, A., et al. (1996). Agriculture in a changing climate: Impacts and adaptations. In R. Watson, M. Zinyowera, R. Moss, & D. Dokken (Eds.), Climate change 1995: Intergovernmental panel on climate change impacts, adaptations, and mitigation of climate change (pp. 427–468). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  65. Rosenzweig, C., & Parry, M. L. (1994). Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature, 367, 133–138.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Rosegrant, M.W., Ringler, C., Sulser, T. B., Ewing, M., Palazzo, A., Zhu, T., Nelson, G.C., Koo, J., Robertson, R., Msangi, S., & Batka, M. (2009). Agriculture and food security under global change: Prospects for 2025/2050. Background paper written in support of the CGIAR Strategy and Results Framework. Washington, DC, IFPRI.Google Scholar
  67. Rust, J. M., & Rust, T. (2013). Climate change and livestock production: A review with emphasis on Africa. South African Journal of Animal Science, 43(3), 255–267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Schlenker, W., Hanemann, M., & Fischer, A. (2005). Will US agriculture really benefit from global warming? Accounting for irrigation in the hedonic approach. American Economic Review, 95(1), 395–406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Sheehy, J.E., Elmido, A.E., Centeno, H.G.S., & Pablico, P.P. 2005. Searching for new plants for climate change. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, 60(5), 463–468.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Simelton, E., Quinn, C. H., Batisani, N., Dougill, A. J., Dyer, J. C., Fraser, E. D. G., et al. (2013). Is rainfall really changing? Farmers’ perceptions, meteorological data, and policy implications. Climate and Development.  https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2012.751893.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Sivakumar, M. V. K., Das, H. P., & Brunini, O. (2005). Impacts of present and future climate variability and change and forestry in the arid and semi arid tropics. Climate Change, 70(1), 31–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Slingo, J. M., Challinor, A. J., Hoskins, B. J., & Wheeler, T. R. (2005). Introduction: Food crops in a challenging climate. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society, 360, 1983–1989.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Smith, B. (1987). Implications of Climatic Change for Agriculture in Ontario, (CCD 87-02). Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, Downsview, Ontario, CanadaGoogle Scholar
  74. Smit, B., McNabb, D., & Smithers, J. (1996). Agricultural adaptation to climatic variation. Climate Change, 3(3), 7–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Sofoluwe, N. A., Tijani, A. A., & Baruwa, O. I. (2011). Farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change in Osun State, Nigeria. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 6(20), 4789–4794.Google Scholar
  76. Sorecha, E. M., Kibret, K., Hadgu, G., & Lupi, A. (2017). Exploring the impacts of climate change on chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) production in Central Highlands of Ethiopia. Academic Research Journal of Agricultural Science and Research, 5(2), 140–150.Google Scholar
  77. SPSS (2011) Statistical package for social sciences. release 18.0, SPSS Inc.Google Scholar
  78. Strydom, S., & Savage, M. J. (2017). Potential impacts of climate change on wildfire dynamics in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Climate Change, 143(3–4), 385–397.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Tesfahunegn, G. B., Mekonen, K., & Tekle, A. (2016). Farmers’ perception on causes, indicators and determinants of climate change in northern Ethiopia: Implication for developing adaptation strategies. Applied Geography, 73, 1–12.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. Thornton, P., Herrero, M., Freeman, A., Mwai, O., Rege, E., Jones, P., et al. (2007). Vulnerability, climate change and livestock—Research opportunities and challenges for the poor. Journal of Semi-Arid Tropical Agricultural Research, 4(1), 1–23.Google Scholar
  81. Tol, R. (2002). Estimates of the damage costs of climate change. Part 1: Benchmark estimates. Environmental & Resource Economics, 21(1), 47–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  82. Warner, K., Nicola, R., Swenja, S., Margaret, A., Joanne, L. B., Erwan, M. K., et al. (2009). Adaptation to climate change: Linking disaster risk reduction and insurance. Geneva, Switzerland: United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.Google Scholar
  83. Zhang, X. C., Liu, W. Z., Li, Z., & Zheng, F. L. (2009). Simulating site-specific impacts of climate change on soil erosion and surface hydrology in southern Loess Plateau of China. CATENA, 79(3), 237–242.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Soil Resources and Watershed Management, College of AgricultureAksum UniversityShireEthiopia
  2. 2.Department of Water Resource and Irrigation Engineering, School of Water TechnologyAksum UniversityShireEthiopia

Personalised recommendations