Euphytica

, Volume 194, Issue 2, pp 277–292 | Cite as

Climate change at winter wheat breeding sites in central Asia, eastern Europe, and USA, and implications for breeding

  • A. Morgounov
  • S. Haun
  • L. Lang
  • S. Martynov
  • K. Sonder
Article

Abstract

Key weather parameters (monthly minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation) were extracted for 35 winter wheat breeding sites in central Asia, eastern Europe and Great Plains of USA from 1961 to 2009. Autumn and winter warming happened gradually, over a long period of time, but mostly before 1991. Climate changes after 1991 were mainly expressed through higher temperatures in spring, May, and June. Clear regional differences were observed for air temperature variation. Breeding sites in the USA seemed to be least subjected to climate change. There were no significant linear trends in yearly, seasonal, or monthly precipitation. Changing climates expressed through rising temperatures during critical stages of winter wheat development have already negatively affected yield gains in several countries, especially in eastern Europe. There are some positive changes associated with warmer winters, which may not require additional investment in traits associated with winter survival. Rising temperatures in spring are of particular concern since their effect on yield is negative in some regions. They certainly accelerate wheat development and shift heading to earlier dates. The interaction of higher temperatures in spring with the rate of crop development and yield is a fundamental issue which requires research. Rising temperatures in June are detrimental for grain development and filling and heat tolerance warrants high priority in breeding programs.

Keywords

Wheat Breeding Grain yield Climate Temperature 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge Drs. Nurberdy Gummadov and M. Lopez da Silva for contributions to the preliminary statistical analysis and discussions, Dr. M. Kan for assistance in accessing the yield data, and Emma Quilligan for editing assistance.

References

  1. Balla K, Bencze S, Janda T, Veisz O (2009) Analysis of heat tolerance in winter wheat. Acta Agron Hung 57(4):437–444CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Braun H-J, Atlin G, Payne T (2010) Multi-location testing as a tool to identify plant response to global climate change. In: Reynolds M (ed) Climate change & crop production. CABI, Wallingford, pp 115–138CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Gholipoor M (2012) Simulation study of past survival trends in over-wintering of wheat in Iran. Int J Plant Prod 6(1):149–160Google Scholar
  4. Gonzalez-Hidalgo J, De Luis M, Raventos J, Sanchez J (2001) Spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall trends in a western Mediterranean area. Int J Climatol 21:843–860CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Gouache D, Le Bris X, Bogard M, Deudon O, Page C, Gate P (2012) Evaluating agronomic adaptation options to increasing heat stress under climate change during wheat grain filling in France. Eur J Agron 39:62–70CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Graybosch RA, Petersen CJ (2010) Genetic improvement in winter wheat yields in the Great Plains of north America, 1959–2008. Crop Sci 50(5):1882–1890CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Harnos N, Erdelyi E (2011) Saustanable wheat production in a changing climate. Acta Agron Hung 59(3):261–266CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Jaczewska-Kalicka A (2008) Influence of climate changes on yielding and cereal protection in Poland. Prog Plant Protec 48(2):415–425Google Scholar
  9. Kenny GJ, Harrison P, Olesen J, Parry M (1993) The effect of climate change on land suitability of grain maize, winter wheat and cauliflower in Europe. Eur J Agron 2(4):325–338Google Scholar
  10. Kryukova V, Dolgikh S, Idrissova V, Cherednichenko A, Sergazina G (2009) Kazakhstan’s second national communication to the conference of the partices to the United Nations framework convention on climate change. Minsitry of Environment Protection, Astana 163 pGoogle Scholar
  11. KyungSuk Cho, Fallnoon P, Gornall J, Betts R, Clark R (2012) Winter wheat yields in the UK: uncertainties in climate and management impact. Climate research 54(1):49–58CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Liatukas Z, Ruzgas V (2011) Relationship of coleptile length and plant height in winter wheat accessions. Pak J Bot 43(3):1535–1540Google Scholar
  13. Lobell D, Burke M, Tebaldi C, Mastrandrea M, Falcon W, Naylor R (2008) Prioratizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319:607–610PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616–620PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Mitchell T, Jones P (2005) An improved method of constructing a database on monthly climate obeservations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25:693–712CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Morgounov A, Braun H-J, Ketata H, Paroda R (2005) International co-operation for winter wheat improvement in central Asia: results and perspectives. Turkish J Agric Forestry 29:137–142Google Scholar
  17. Moriondo M, Bindi M, Kundzewicz Z, Szwed M, Chorynski A, Matczak P, Radziejewski A, McEvoy D, Wreford A (2010) Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in responce to climatic change and variability. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 15(7):657–679CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Mosaad M, Morgounov A, Gomez H, Jarrah M, Rajaram S (2008) Variation in agronomic, rust reaction and grain quality characteristics in a collection of winter and facultative wheat varieties. Cereals Res Commun 36(3):441–450CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Mustatea P, Ittu G, Saulescu N (2011) Effect of vernalization requirements on heading date and grain yield of near-isigenic lines of wheat (Triticum aestivum). Romanian Agric Res 28:3–9Google Scholar
  20. Ozdogan M (2011) Modeling the impacts of climate change on wheat yields in northwest Turkey. Agric Ecosyst Environ 141:1–12CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Partal T, Kahya E (2006) Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrol Process 20:2011–2026CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Pepo P, Kovacevic V (2011) Regional analysis of winter wheat yields under different ecological conditions in Hungary and Croatia. Acta Agron Hung 59(1):23–33CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Rajaram S, van Ginkel M, Fischer RA (1995) CIMMYT’s wheat breeding mega-environments (ME). In:Proceedings of the 8th international wheat genetics symposium, Jul. 19–24 1993, Beijing, China. p.1101–1106Google Scholar
  24. Ray DK, Ramankutty N, Mueller N, West P, Foley J (2012) Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nature Commun 3:1293. doi: 10.1038/ncomms2296 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Roshan GR, Grab SW (2012) regional climate change scenarios and their impact on water requirements for wheat production in Iran. Int J Plant Produc 6(2):239–266Google Scholar
  26. Thaler S, Eitzinger J, Trnka M, Dubrovskiy M (2012) Impacts of climate change and alternative adaptation options on winter wheat yield and water productivity in a dry climate in central Europe. J Agric Sci 150(5):537–555CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Toncheva R, Samalieva A, Klevtzov A (2008) Trends of wheat yield variability by planning regions of Bulgaria for 1960-2006. Rastenevedni Nauki 45(4):297–301Google Scholar
  28. Toptikov V, Dyachenko L, Totskii V (2012) Expression of antioxidant oxidoreductases and protein profile on seedling tissues of winter and spring forms of cereals under extreme temperature fluctuations. Cytol gene 46(3):161–171CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. WHEAT—Global Alliance for Improving Food Security and the Livelihoods of the Resource-poor in the Developing World. CIMMYT, Mexico, 2011, 189 pGoogle Scholar
  30. Walthall CL, Hatfield J, Backlund L, Lengnick L, Marshall E, et al (2012) Climate change and agriculture in the United States: effects and adaptation. USDA Technical Bulletin 1935. Washington, DC. 186 ppGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. Morgounov
    • 1
  • S. Haun
    • 1
  • L. Lang
    • 2
  • S. Martynov
    • 3
  • K. Sonder
    • 4
  1. 1.CIMMYTAnkaraTurkey
  2. 2.Agricultural InstituteMartonvasarHungary
  3. 3.Vavilov InstituteSt. PetersburgRussia
  4. 4.CIMMYTMexico CityMexico

Personalised recommendations