Economic Swings, Political Instability and Migration in Kyrgyzstan
- 87 Downloads
Individual-level migration responses to economic fluctuations and political instability remain poorly understood. Using nationally representative survey data from Kyrgyzstan, we look at variations in levels and propensities of internal and temporary international migration and relate them to changes in the economic and political environment in that Central Asian nation in the first decade of the century. A multinomial event history model predicting yearly risks of both types of migration detects no clear association of internal migration risks with episodes of heightened political instability but shows a decrease in those risks in response to the strongest economic shock of the observation period. In comparison, international migration risks, while also insensitive to political turmoil, appear to increase at the time of the most pronounced economic downturn. The results also point to instructive patterns in migration propensities by type of area of residence, education, gender, and ethnicity. These findings are interpreted in light of complex intersections of demography with politics, economy, and culture in this transitional Eurasian setting.
KeywordsInternal migration Temporary international migration Economic and political instability Central Eurasia Kyrgyzstan
The support of the National Council for Eurasian and East European Research (NCEEER), Grant #827-01, for data collection is gratefully acknowledged.
Compliance with Ethical Standards
Conflict of interest
Neither author has any conflict of interest.
Ethical Approval and Informed Consent
All procedures performed in the study were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki Declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards. Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.
- Ajwad, M.I., Abdulloev, I., Audy, R., Hut, S., Laat, J. de; Kheyfets, I., Larrison, J., Nikoloski, Z., & Torracchi, F. (2014). The Skills road: Skills for employability in the Kyrgyz Republic. World Bank, Washington, DC. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/311261468016850877/pdf/910030WP0P14350yrgyz0Republic0final.pdf. Accessed 20 Jan 2018.
- Basker, E. (2003). Education, job search and migration (Working paper No. 02-16). University of Missouri–Columbia. http://web.missouri.edu/~baskere/papers/migration.pdf.
- Begley, J., Coffey, D., Donnelly, T., & Thornley, C. (Eds.). (2016). Global economic crisis and local economic development: International cases and policy responses. New York, NY: Routledge.Google Scholar
- Bettin, G., Presbitero, A. F., & Spatafora, N. L. (2017). Remittances and vulnerability in developing countries. The World Bank Economic Review, 31(1), 1–23.Google Scholar
- Borjas, G. J. (1987). Self-selection and the earnings of immigrants. American Economic Review, 77(4), 531–553.Google Scholar
- Castles, S., de Haas, H., & Miller, M. J. (2016). The age of migration. International population movements in the modern world (5th ed.). New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
- De Jong, G. F., Abad, R. G., Arnold, F., Carino, B. V., Fawcett, J. T., & Gardner, R. W. (1983). International and internal migration decision making: A value-expectancy based analytical framework of intentions to move from a rural Philippine province. International Migration Review, 17(3), 470–484.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Di Bartolomeo, A., Makaryan S., & Weinar, A. (2014). Regional migration report: Russia and Central Asia. European University Institute. Robert Schuman Centre for Advances Studies. Migration Policy Center. http://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/31245/RussiaAndCentralAsia_MPC_CarimEastReport.pdf?sequence=1. Accessed 20 Jan 2018.
- Donato, K. M., & Gabaccia, D. (2015). Gender and international migration: From the slavery era to the global age. New York: The Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
- Ergeshbayev, U. (2006). Trends and development of migration processes in Kyrgyzstan. In Rios, R.R. (Ed.), Migration perspectives in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Planning and managing labour migration (pp. 45–54). Vienna: International Organization for Migration.Google Scholar
- Ferrie, J. P. (2003). Internal migration. In S. B. Carter, S. S. Gartner, M. R. Haines, A. L. Olmstead, R. Sutch, & G. Wright (Eds.), Historical statistics of the United States, earliest times to the present (Millennial ed., pp. 489–489). New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Fix, M., Papademetriou, D. G., Batalova, J., Terrazas, A., Lin, S. Y., & Mittelstadt, M. (2009). Migration and the global recession. Washington, DC: Migration Policy Institute.Google Scholar
- Harris, J. R., & Todaro, M. P. (1970). Unemployment and development: A two-sector analysis. American Economic Review, 60(1), 126–142.Google Scholar
- Heleniak, T. (1997). Internal migration in Russia during the economic transition. Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 38(2), 81–104.Google Scholar
- Hernández-Murillo, R., Ott, L. S., Owyang, M. T., & Whalen, D. (2011). Patterns of interstate migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 93(3), 169–186.Google Scholar
- Ibraeva, G. K., & Ablezova, M. K. (2016). Kyrgyzstan: Extended migration profile, 2010–2015. Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan: International Organization for Migration.Google Scholar
- Kumskov, G. (2002). Patterns and peculiarities of contemporary migration processes in Kyrgyzstan. Bishkek: Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University. (in Russian).Google Scholar
- Kumskov, G., et al. (1997). Socioeconomic problems of population migration in the Kyrgyz Republic (1991–1996). Bishkek: Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University. (in Russian).Google Scholar
- Lukasheva, I., & Makenbaeva, I. (2009). The impact of the global economic crisis on Kyrgyzstan. Bishkek: OSCE. http://www.osce.org/bishkek/40540. Accessed 20 Jan 2018.
- Malamud, O., & Wozniak, A. (2010). The impact of college education on geographic mobility: Evidence from the Vietnam generation. (Harris School of Public Policy Studies Working Paper No. 0811). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago. http://harrisschool.uchicago.edu/about/publications/working-papers/pdf/wp_08_11.pdf.
- Malyuchenko I. (2015). Labour Migration from Central Asia to Russia: Economic and social impact on the societies of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Central Asia Security Policy Briefs. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. OSCE Academy. http://www.osce-academy.net/upload/file/Policy_Brief_21.pdf.
- Mkrtchyan, N., & Sarygulov, B. (2011). Migration in contemporary Kyrgyzstan. Demoscope Weekly, No. 481−482, October 10-23. (http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2011/0481/tema05.php) (in Russian). Accessed 20 Jan 2018.
- NSK [National Statistical Committee]. (2010). 2009 Population and Housing Census of the Kyrgyz Republic. Part II. Migration of Kyrgyzstan’s population. National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic: Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. (in Russian).Google Scholar
- Phizacklea, A. (1997). Globalization and migration: A feminist perspective. In K. Koser & H. Lutz (Eds.), The new migration in Europe: Social constructions and social realities (pp. 21–38). New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
- Rocheva, A., & Varshaver, E. (2017). Gender dimension of migration from Central Asia to the Russian Federation. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, 32(2), 87–135.Google Scholar
- Rosenbloom, J.L., & Sundstrom, W.A. (2004). The decline and rise of interstate migration in the United States: Evidence from the IPUMS, 1850-1990. In Field, A. (Ed.), Research in economic history (Vol. 22) (pp. 289-325). Amsterdam and San Diego: Elsevier, JAI.Google Scholar
- Schuler, M., & Kudabaev, Z. (2004). Migration in Kyrgyzstan. In Z. Kudabaev, M. Guillot, & M. Denisenko (Eds.), Population of Kyrgyzstan (pp. 281–303). Bishkek: National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic. (in Russian).Google Scholar
- Stark, O. (1991). The migration of labour. Cambridge, MA: Basil Blackwell.Google Scholar
- [The] World Bank. (2016). World development indicators: The Kyrgyz Republic. http://data.worldbank.org/country/kyrgyz-republic. Accessed 20 Jan 2018.
- Todaro, M. P. (1980). Internal migration in developing countries: A survey. In R. A. Easterlin (Ed.), Population and economic change in developing countries (pp. 361–402). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
- Tsuda, T. (Ed.). (2009). Diasporic homecomings: Ethnic return migration in comparative perspective. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
- Tyuryukanova, E. V. (Ed.). (2011). Migrant women from the commonwealth of independent states in Russia. Moscow: Maks Press (in Russian).Google Scholar