Geographies of a silent transition: a geographically weighted regression approach to regional fertility differences in Turkey

  • Oğuz IşikEmail author
  • M. Melih Pinarcioğlu
Original Paper


The fertility decline that Turkey has gone through in the last few decades is characterised by sharp regional inequalities, with western regions representing patterns akin to developed countries and those in the east resembling “third-world” countries, while central regions represent an in-between case. With the help of geographically weighted regression (GWR), this article is an attempt to set up a model of causal relationships that could account for the regional fertility differentials. The results indicate that the fertility decline is not a single and all-embracing process covering all regions. On the contrary, there are regions differentiated qualitatively from each other in terms of the underlying causes of the existing fertility levels.


Turkey Geographically weighted regression Fertility decline Demographic transition Regional inequalities 

Géographie d’une transition silencieuse: une approche des différences régionales de fécondité en Turquie par régression pondérée sur une base géographique


La baisse de fécondité observée en Turquie au cours des dernières décennies est caractérisée par des inégalités régionales très accusées, avec les régions de l’ouest proches des pays développés, celles de l’est des pays en développement, et les régions centrales dans une situation intermédiaire. A l’aide d’une régression pondérée sur une base géographique, un modèle de causalité est élaboré en vue d’une prise en compte des différences régionales de fécondité. Les résultats montrent que la baisse de fécondité n’est pas un phénomène uniforme sur tout le territoire, et qu’au contraire, certaines régions diffèrent les unes des autres de manière qualitative en termes des causes sous-jacentes aux niveaux de fécondité.


Turquie régression pondérée sur base géographique baisse de la fécondité transition démographique inégalités régionales 


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© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of City and Regional PlanningMiddle East Technical UniversityAnkaraTurkey

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