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Societal Transition, Policy Changes and Family Formation: Evidence from Hungary

  • Arnstein AassveEmail author
  • Francesco C. Billari
  • Zsolt Spéder
Article

Abstract

The paper uses the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey ‘Turning Points in the Life-course’ (HGGS) to describe recent changes in union formation, onset of childbearing, leaving home and cohabitation. By estimating survivor functions and semi-parametric hazard regression models with time-varying covariates for the timing of first union and first birth, we find a long delay among the youngest cohorts, but also remarkably strong period effects. Reduced employment, increased educational enrolment, and a higher level of uncertainty are important drivers behind these changes. Moreover, our evidence suggests that certain policy changes during the transition have exacerbated this effect, having an asymmetric impact on family formation – depending on the social status of individuals.

Keywords

Hungary transition family formation family policy event history analysis 

Résumé

Cet article s’appuie sur l’enquête hongroise Générations et Genre «Points d’inflexion dans les biographies» pour décrire les changements récents dans la formation des unions, dans le début de la procréation, le départ du domicile parental et la cohabitation. En estimant des fonctions de survie et des modèles de Cox avec des caractéristiques dépendantes de la durée pour le calendrier de la première union et de la première naissance, nous mettons en évidence un retard sensible parmi les générations les plus jeunes mais aussi des effets de périodes très manifestes. Une réduction de l’emploi, un investissement accru dans l’éducation et un niveau plus élevé d’incertitude sont des ressorts importants de ces changements. Par ailleurs, nos analyses suggèrent que les changements de politiques publiques au cours de la transition ont exacerbé ces effets, qui sont toutefois plus ou moins marqués selon la position sociale des individus.

Mots clés

Hongrie transition formation de la famille politique familiale analyse des biographies 

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Copyright information

© Springer 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • Arnstein Aassve
    • 1
    Email author
  • Francesco C. Billari
    • 2
  • Zsolt Spéder
    • 3
  1. 1.Institute of Social and Economic Research and CASEUniversity of EssexColchesterUK
  2. 2.Institute of Quantitative Methods and IGIERUniversità BocconiMilanItaly
  3. 3.Demographic Research InstituteBudapestHungary

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