Environment Systems and Decisions

, Volume 36, Issue 4, pp 335–350 | Cite as

System dynamic modeling of CO2 emissions and pollutants from passenger cars in Malaysia, 2040

  • Muhammad Azmi
  • Akihiro Tokai


Transportation sector is the second largest producer of greenhouse gas in Malaysia next to energy sector. It contributes to nearly 28 % of annual national carbon emissions due to its heavy dependency of hydrocarbons such as gasoline. If not properly managed, carbon dioxide emissions per capita are expected to nearly double in the next 5 years. Lack of interdisciplinary study on this sector has caused proper mitigation initiatives to be delayed, compounding the damage to the ecosystem. The objective of this study is to develop a dynamic probabilistic model to determine emissions and pollutants of transportation system in Malaysia using Analytica software, with focus on passenger cars for its large number over other vehicle classes. Several vehicle fleet management policies based on several key governmental, industrial and stakeholder’s intervention have been constructed and analyzed for a period of 25 years. This analysis found that greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants in 2040 can be reduced by up to 80 %, compared to emissions of 2020, without any adverse effect on vehicle demand nor the economy. However, without proper intervention, personal transportation system in Malaysia will generate nearly 80,000 kilotons of greenhouse gas annually by the year 2040.


System dynamic Transportation Environmental modeling Passenger car Vehicle emissions Carbon dioxide 



The authors would like to thank Majlis Amanah Rakyat (MARA Malaysia) for providing financial support for this project. The funder has neither conflict of interest nor any influence over any stage of this manuscript’s production. The authors are grateful to the associate editor and the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions. Also, extension of thanks to Ibnu Susanto for his helpful comments.


  1. Ackah I, Adu F (2014) Modelling gasoline demand in ghana: a structural time series analysis. Int J Energy Econ Policy 4:76–82Google Scholar
  2. Ang JB (2008) Economic development, pollutant emissions and energy consumption in Malaysia. J Policy Model 30:271–278. doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.04.010 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Archer D (2009) The long thaw. Princeton University Press, PrincetonGoogle Scholar
  4. Azam M, Othman J et al (2015) Energy consumption and emission projection for the road transport sector in Malaysia: an application of the LEAP model. Environ Dev Sustain. doi: 10.1007/s10668-015-9684-4 Google Scholar
  5. Azmi M, Saman M, Sharif S et al (2013) Proposed framework for end-of-life vehicle recycling system implementation in Malaysia. In: 11th global conference on sustainable manufacturing. Berlin, Germany, pp 188–194Google Scholar
  6. Balaguer J, Cantavella M (2016) Estimating the environmental Kuznets curve for Spain by considering fuel oil prices (1874–2011). Ecol Indic 60:853–859. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.08.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Börjesson M, Ahlgren EO (2012) Assessment of transport fuel taxation strategies through integration of road transport in an energy system model-the case of Sweden. Int J Energy Res 36:648–669. doi: 10.1002/er.1824 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Borken-Kleefeld J, Chen Y (2015) New emission deterioration rates for gasoline cars—results from long-term measurements. Atmos Environ 101:58–64. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.11.013 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Boulter PG (2009) Emission factors 2009: report 6—deterioration factors and other modelling assumptions for road vehicles; PPR359Google Scholar
  10. Chen M (2005) End-of-life vehicle recycling in China: now and the future. JOM 57:20–26. doi: 10.1007/s11837-005-0146-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Coada A, de Haan P, Woersdorfera JS (2009) Consumer support for environmental policies: an application to purchase of green cars. Methodol Adv Footpr Anal 68:2078–2086Google Scholar
  12. Cobb J (2016) Norway Aiming for 100-percent zero emission vehicle sales by 2025. Accessed 23 Apr 2016
  13. de Jong G, Gunn H (2001) Recent evidence on car cost and time elasticities of travel demand in Europe. J Transp Econ Policy 35:137–160Google Scholar
  14. Energy Commission (2015) Malaysia energy statistics handbook 2015. PutrajayaGoogle Scholar
  15. European Comissions (2015) EDGAR—emission database for global atmospheric research. In: European commission, joint research centre. Accessed 20 Apr 2016
  16. Ford A (2010) Modeling the environment, 2nd edn. Island Press, WashingtonGoogle Scholar
  17. Hafemeister D, Levi B, Levine M, Schwartz P (2008) American physical society physics of sustainable energy at UC, Berkeley, March 1–2, 2008 opening talk by Steve Chu, director of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; associated paper: (Chu, S., Chapter 1, Science of Photons to Fuels)Google Scholar
  18. Higuchi Y, Wada N, Nakakubo T, Tokai A (2012) Scenario analysis on the impact of diffusion of next generation vehicles on material consumption and GHG emissions. In: Matsumoto M, Umeda Y, Masui K, Fukushige S (eds) Design for innovative value towards a sustainable society. Springer, Netherlands, pp 598–603Google Scholar
  19. Hosseini SE, Wahid MA, Aghili N (2013) The scenario of greenhouse gases reduction in Malaysia. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 28:400–409. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2013.08.045 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Huo H, Wang M (2012) Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China. Energy Policy 43:17–29. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.063 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Huo H, Wang M, Zhang X et al (2012) Projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: policy options and impacts. Energy Policy 43:37–48. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.065 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Ibnu Susanto J, Tokai A, Nakakubo T (2013) System dynamics model development for evaluation of the moratorium policy on new forest and peatland concessions under bilateral cooperation in Indonesia: palm oil industry sector case study. J Sustain Energy Environ 4:159–170Google Scholar
  23. International Energy Agency (2015) CO2 emissions from fuel combustion: highlights. ParisGoogle Scholar
  24. IPCC (2006) 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. Main 2:12.
  25. Jacobsen MR, van Benthem AA (2013) Vehicle scrappage and gasoline policy. CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  26. Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association Incorporated (2015) The motor industry of Japan 2015. TokyoGoogle Scholar
  27. Kamarudin SK, Daud WRW, Yaakub Z et al (2009) Synthesis and optimization of future hydrogen energy infrastructure planning in Peninsular Malaysia. Int J Hydrogen Energy 34:2077–2088. doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2008.12.086 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Kasipillai J, Chan P (2008) Travel demand management: lessons for Malaysia. J Public Transp 11:41–55CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. KeTTHA (2013) KeTTHA annual report 2013Google Scholar
  30. Kojima N, Tokai A, Nakakubo T, Nagata Y (2016) Policy evaluation of vehicle exhaust standards in Japan from 1995 to 2005 based on two human health risk indices for air pollution and global warming. Environ Syst Decis. doi: 10.1007/s10669-015-9582-1 Google Scholar
  31. Lakshmanan TR, Han X (1997) Factors underlying transportation CO2 emissions in the USA: a decomposition analysis. Transp Res Part D Transp Environ 2:1–15. doi: 10.1016/S1361-9209(96)00011-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. MacCarthy J, Thomas J, Choudrie S et al (2008) UK greenhouse gas inventory, 1990 to 2008: annual report for submission under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. OxfordshireGoogle Scholar
  33. Ministry of Transportation Malaysia (2015) Transport statistics 2000–2014 (Report Compilation). PutrajayaGoogle Scholar
  34. Mohd Jawi Z, Lamin F, Abdul Manap AR et al (2012) Review of the national automotive policy on car maintenance issues: Malaysia’s automotive ecosystem explained, MRev 02/20. Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research (MIROS), Kuala LumpurGoogle Scholar
  35. Mustapa SI, Bekhet HA (2015) Investigating factors affecting CO2 emissions in Malaysian road transport sector. Int J Energy Econ Policy 5:1073–1083Google Scholar
  36. Ntziachristos L, Samaras Z, Kouridis C et al (2014) EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2013. EEA Publ. doi: 10.2800/92722 Google Scholar
  37. Olivier JGJ, Janssens-Maenhout G, Muntean M, Peters JAHW (2015) Trends in global CO2 emissions: 2015 report. European Commission`s Joint Research Centre, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague.
  38. Ong HC, Mahlia TMI, Masjuki HH (2011) A review on emissions and mitigation strategies for road transport in Malaysia. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 15:3516–3522. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2011.05.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Ong HC, Mahlia TMI, Masjuki HH (2012) A review on energy pattern and policy for transportation sector in Malaysia. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 16:532–542. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2011.08.019 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Pasaoglu G, Honselaar M, Thiel C (2012) Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe. Energy Policy 40:404–421. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.10.025 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Rafique MZ, Rahman MNA, Saibani N et al (2016) Quality check for customer benefit in bus transport system through statistical control charts and gauge R & R. Int J Appl Eng Res 11:101–104Google Scholar
  42. Rahim KA (2014) Towards low carbon economy via carbon intensity reduction in Malaysia. J Econ Sustain Dev 5:123–133Google Scholar
  43. Salem A, Atiq R, Jaafar O (2011) An overview of urban transport in Malaysia. Soc Sci 6:24–33. doi: 10.3923/sscience.2011.24.33 Google Scholar
  44. Shabadin A, Johari NM, Jamil HM (2014) Car annual vehicle kilometer travelled estimated from car manufacturer data—an improved method. In: World research & innovation convention on engineering & technology 2014. Federation of engineering institution of Islamic countries, PutrajayaGoogle Scholar
  45. Shamsudin S, Minhans A, Puan OC (2014) Assessment of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures in transportation sector of Malaysia. J Teknol 4:1–8Google Scholar
  46. Sterman J (2000) Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Irwin/McGraw-HillGoogle Scholar
  47. Tamrin S (2015) SPAD to moot contract system for stage buses in transport overhaul | Malaysia | Malay Mail Online. Accessed 20 Apr 2016
  48. The World Bank (2016) World development indicators: trends in greenhouse gas emissions. Accessed 10 Sep 2016
  49. Thiel C, Perujo A, Mercier A (2010) Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios. Energy Policy 38:7142–7151. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.07.034 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Thomas D (2003) What is food decision? Criteria for environmental decision making. Hum Ecol Rev 10:33–39Google Scholar
  51. Timilsina GR, Shrestha A (2009) Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: underlying factors and policy options. Energy Policy 37:4523–4539. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.06.009 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. UK Vehicle Certification Agency (2016) Car fuel data, CO2 and vehicle tax. In: United Kingdom Veh. Certif. Agency. Accessed 21 Mar 2016
  53. UNCCC (2015) Paris tracker: who pledged what for 2015 UN climate pact? | Climate Home—climate change news. In: United Nations Conv. Clim. Chang. Accessed 20 Apr 2016
  54. US Department of State (2014) US climate action report 2014. United Nations Conv Clim Chang 310Google Scholar
  55. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2016) Inventory of US greenhouse gas emissions and sinks: 1990–2014. WashingtonGoogle Scholar
  56. van Wee B, Rietveld P, Meurs H (2006) Is average daily travel time expenditure constant? In search of explanations for an increase in average travel time. J Transp Geogr 14:109–122. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2005.06.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Wang Y, Teter J, Sperling D (2011) China’s soaring vehicle population: even greater than forecasted? Energy Policy 39:3296–3306. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.020 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Division of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of EngineeringOsaka UniversitySuitaJapan

Personalised recommendations