Environmental Modeling & Assessment

, Volume 12, Issue 3, pp 239–251

Time series modelling of respiratory hospital admissions and geometrically weighted distributed lag effects from ambient particulate air pollution within Kathmandu Valley, Nepal


DOI: 10.1007/s10666-006-9071-5

Cite this article as:
Shrestha, S.L. Environ Model Assess (2007) 12: 239. doi:10.1007/s10666-006-9071-5


The distributed lag effects of ambient particulate air pollution exposure on respiratory hospital admissions in Kathmandu Valley are modelled using daily time series data. The extended exposure to PM10 is accounted for by assigning weights to daily average PM10 which decline geometrically as the lag period increases in days. Results show that the percent increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospital admissions and respiratory admissions including COPD, asthma, pneumonia, and bronchitis per 10 μg/m3 rise in PM10 are found to be 4.85% for 30 days lag effect, about 15.9% higher than that observed for same-day lag effect and 3.52% for 40 days lag effect, about 28.9% higher than the observed value for same-day lag effect, respectively.


distributed lag effect geometrically declining weights Kathmandu Valley particulate air pollution respiratory admissions statistical modelling 

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Central Department of StatisticsTribhuvan UniversityKathmanduNepal

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