Empirical Software Engineering

, Volume 18, Issue 3, pp 435–477 | Cite as

Predicting the Flow of Defect Correction Effort using a Bayesian Network Model

  • Thomas SchulzEmail author
  • Łukasz Radliński
  • Thomas Gorges
  • Wolfgang Rosenstiel


The number of defects alone does not provide software companies with enough information on the effort required to fix them. Defects have different impacts on the overall defect correction effort – defects introduced in one phase may be found and corrected in the same or later phase. The later they are found, the more effort is required to correct them. The main aim of this paper is to build and validate a model (Bayesian Network) for predicting the defect correction effort at various phases of the software development process. The procedure of building the model covers the following steps: problem analysis, data analysis, model definition and enhancement, simulation runs, and model validation. Developed Defect Cost Flow Model (DCFM), which is an implementation of the V-model of a software project lifecycle, correctly incorporates known qualitative and quantitative relationships. Application of DCFM in a real industrial process revealed its high potential in finding the appropriate amount of review effort for specific development phases to minimize the overall costs. The model may be used in the industry for decision support. It can be extended and calibrated to meet the needs of specific development environment.


Bayesian Network Correction effort Decision support Defect flow Process modeling Software process 



Bayesian Network


Conditional Probability Table


Defect Correction Effort


Defect Cost Factor


Defect Cost Flow Model


Design Stage


Implementation Stage


Integration and Testing Stage


Key Performance Indicator


Quality Assurance


Requirements Engineering Stage


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Thomas Schulz
    • 1
    Email author
  • Łukasz Radliński
    • 2
  • Thomas Gorges
    • 3
  • Wolfgang Rosenstiel
    • 4
  1. 1.Robert Bosch GmbH, Car Multimedia (CM-IS/EBM1)LeonbergGermany
  2. 2.Department of Information Systems EngineeringUniversity of SzczecinSzczecinPoland
  3. 3.Robert Bosch GmbHLeonbergGermany
  4. 4.Eberhard Karls Universität TübingenTübingenGermany

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