A forecast analysis on fertilizers consumption worldwide

Abstract

This study aimed to make a review and forecast on fertilizers consumption worldwide in order to provide basal data for the decision-making of fertilizers production and for the environmental impact assessment of fertilizers application. It was found that fertilizers consumption was dependent on human population and the increase of fertilizers consumption was mainly resulted from expansion of human population. The univariate linear model, y=a+rx(t), where y is the fertilizers consumption, x(t) is the total human population at year t, r is the annual fertilizers consumption per capita, was used to fit historical data of fertilizers consumption, and the forecasts during 2010 to 2030 were given in detail. Model analysis showed that world’s per capita annual consumption of total fertilizers, nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers, were 34.6, 24.4, 6.6, and 3.7 kg, respectively. Per capita annual consumption of total fertilizers for Asia, Africa, Caribbean, Oceania, North & Central America, Europe, and South America were 38.8, 5.9, 6.8, 114.0, 62.9, −0.9, and 43.6 kg, respectively. Compared to the current level, the world’s total fertilizers consumption would reach 226,150,381 Mt by 2030, an increase of 32.1% against current level. Worldwide consumption of nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers would reach 141,800,601, 50,961,129, and 33,388,650 Mt by 2030, increasing 37.5, 25.8, and 21.2% based on current levels. Consumption of total, nitrogenous, phosphate, and potash fertilizers in Asia and Africa would increase 54 to 55% and 40 to 60% by 2030, respectively. Total fertilizers consumption in North & Central America would see an increase of 39.4% by 2030, and in South America and Oceania it would increase by 30.9 and 64.7%, respectively. By 2030, Caribbean’s consumption for total fertilizers would increase 2.8%. Europe’s total fertilizers consumption was forecast to continuously decline and would have a decrease of 2.4% by 2030. Annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers, nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers for the world, Africa, Asia, and South America were forecast to decrease in the forecast period. For North & Central America, annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers and nitrogenous fertilizers would decrease and the others would increase annually by 2030. Annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers for Oceania were forecast to rise annually by 2030. Europe’s annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers and potash fertilizers would decrease in the future.