Comparative biology of different plant pathogens to estimate effects of climate change on crop diseases in Europe
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This review describes environmental factors that influence severity of crop disease epidemics, especially in the UK and north-west Europe, in order to assess the effects of climate change on crop growth and yield and severity of disease epidemics. While work on some diseases, such as phoma stem canker of oilseed rape and fusarium ear blight of wheat, that combine crop growth, disease development and climate change models is described in detail, climate-change projections and predictions of the resulting biotic responses to them are complex to predict and detailed models linking climate, crop growth and disease development are not available for many crop-pathogen systems. This review uses a novel approach of comparing pathogen biology according to ‘ecotype’ (a categorization based on aspects such as epidemic type, dissemination method and infection biology), guided by detailed disease progress models where available to identify potential future research priorities for disease control. Consequences of projected climate change are assessed for factors driving elements of disease cycles of fungal pathogens (nine important pathogens are assessed in detail), viruses, bacteria and phytoplasmas. Other diseases classified according to ‘ecotypes’ were reviewed and likely changes in their severity used to guide comparable diseases about which less information is available. Both direct and indirect effects of climate change are discussed, with an emphasis on examples from the UK, and considered in the context of other factors that influence diseases and particularly emergence of new diseases, such as changes to farm practices and introductions of exotic material and effects of other environment changes such as elevated CO2. Good crop disease control will contribute to climate change mitigation by decreasing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture while sustaining production. Strategies for adaptation to climate change are needed to maintain disease control and crop yields in north-west Europe.
KeywordsClimate change adaptation CO2 emissions Food insecurity Plant pathogens Epidemics Invasive species
The authors are grateful for the funding and information provided by HGCA and the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, for the Sustainable Arable LINK project CLIMDIS (LK09111) with contributions from Simon G. Edwards; Judith A. Turner; David Ellerton; Andrew Flind; John King; Julian Hasler; C. Peter Werner; Chris Tapsell; Sarah Holdgate; Richard Summers; Bill Angus, and John Edmonds. Rothamsted Research is an institute of the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (Bioenergy and Climate Change ISPG). We thank colleagues and collaborators, including Neal Evans, Michael Butterworth, James Madgwick and Mikhail Semenov, who have contributed to the work reviewed in this paper.
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