European Journal of Epidemiology

, Volume 24, Issue 8, pp 441–448 | Cite as

The gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk in Tromsø, Norway

  • Luai A. AhmedEmail author
  • Henrik Schirmer
  • Åshild Bjørnerem
  • Nina Emaus
  • Lone Jørgensen
  • Jan Størmer
  • Ragnar M. Joakimsen


Aim of this study is to estimate the gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute risks of non-vertebral and osteoporotic (included hip, distal forearm and proximal humerus) fractures in a large cohort of men and women. This is a population-based 10 years follow-up study of 26,891 subjects aged 25 years and older in Tromsø, Norway. All non-vertebral fractures were registered from 1995 throughout 2004 by computerized search in radiographic archives. Absolute risks were estimated by life-table method taking into account the competing risk of death. The absolute fracture risk at each year of age was estimated for the next 10 years (10-year risk) or up to the age of 90 years (lifetime risk). The estimated 10-year absolute risk of all non-vertebral fracture was higher in men than women before but not after the age of 45 years. The 10-year absolute risk for non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures was over 10%, respectively, in men over 65 and 70 years and in women over 45 and 50 years of age. The 10-year absolute risks of hip fractures at the age of 65 and 80 years were 4.2 and 18.6% in men, and 9.0 and 24.0% in women, respectively. The risk estimates for distal forearm and proximal humerus fractures were under 5% in men and 13% in women. The estimated lifetime risks for all fracture locations were higher in women than men at all ages. At the age of 50 years, the risks were 38.1 and 24.8% in men and 67.4 and 55.0% in women for all non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures, respectively. The estimated gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk were higher in Tromsø than in other populations. The high lifetime fracture risk reflects the increased burden of fractures in this cohort.


Absolute risk 10-Year risk Lifetime risk Non-vertebral fractures Osteoporotic fractures 



The study was financed by The Centre for Research in the Elderly in Tromsø, the Northern Norway Regional Health Authority.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Luai A. Ahmed
    • 1
    Email author
  • Henrik Schirmer
    • 1
    • 2
  • Åshild Bjørnerem
    • 1
  • Nina Emaus
    • 1
  • Lone Jørgensen
    • 1
  • Jan Størmer
    • 3
  • Ragnar M. Joakimsen
    • 4
    • 5
  1. 1.Institute of Community MedicineUniversity of TromsøTromsøNorway
  2. 2.Department of CardiologyUniversity Hospital of North NorwayTromsøNorway
  3. 3.Department of RadiographyUniversity Hospital of North NorwayTromsøNorway
  4. 4.Department of MedicineUniversity Hospital of North NorwayTromsøNorway
  5. 5.Institute of Clinical MedicineUniversity of TromsøTromsøNorway

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