Environmental and Ecological Statistics

, Volume 23, Issue 1, pp 155–180 | Cite as

Automatic classification of climate change effects on marine species distributions in 2050 using the AquaMaps model

  • Gianpaolo Coro
  • Chiara Magliozzi
  • Anton Ellenbroek
  • Kristin Kaschner
  • Pasquale Pagano
Article

Abstract

Habitat modifications driven by human impact and climate change may influence species distribution, particularly in aquatic environments. Niche-based models are commonly used to evaluate the availability and suitability of habitat and assess the consequences of future climate scenarios on a species range and shifting edges of its distribution. Together with knowledge on biology and ecology, niche models also allow evaluating the potential of species to react to expected changes. The availability of projections of future climate scenarios allows comparing current and future niche distributions, assessing a species’ habitat suitability modification and shift, and consequently estimating potential species’ reaction. In this study, differences between the distribution maps of 406 marine species, which were produced by the AquaMaps niche models on current and future (year 2050) scenarios, were estimated and evaluated. Discrepancy measurements were used to identify a discrete number of categories, which represent different responses to climate change. Clustering analysis was then used to automatically detect these categories, demonstrating their reliability compared to human supervised classification. Finally, the distribution of characteristics like extinction risk (based on IUCN categories), taxonomic groups, population trends and habitat suitability change over the clustering categories was evaluated. In this assessment, direct human impact was neglected, in order to focus only on the consequences of environmental changes. Furthermore, in the comparison between two climate snapshots, the intermediate phases were assumed to be implicitly included into the model of the 2050 climate scenario.

Keywords

AquaMaps Big Data Climate change Clustering analysis Ecological niche modelling GIS Maps comparison OGC standards Species distribution maps 

Supplementary material

10651_2015_333_MOESM1_ESM.xlsx (40 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (xlsx 40 KB)

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Gianpaolo Coro
    • 1
  • Chiara Magliozzi
    • 1
  • Anton Ellenbroek
    • 2
  • Kristin Kaschner
    • 3
  • Pasquale Pagano
    • 1
  1. 1.Istituto di Scienza e Tecnologie dell’Informazione “Alessandro Faedo” – CNRPisaItaly
  2. 2.Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)RomeItaly
  3. 3.Department of Biometry and Environmental Systems AnalysisAlbert-Ludwigs UniversityFreiburgGermany

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