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Case Study Part 2: Probabilistic Modelling of Long-term Effects of Pesticides on Individual Breeding Success in Birds and Mammals


Long term exposure of skylarks to a fictitious insecticide and of wood mice to a fictitious fungicide were modelled probabilistically in a Monte Carlo simulation. Within the same simulation the consequences of exposure to pesticides on reproductive success were modelled using the toxicity–exposure-linking rules developed by R.S. Bennet et al. (2005) and the interspecies extrapolation factors suggested by R. Luttik et al. (2005). We built models to reflect a range of scenarios and as a result were able to show how exposure to pesticide might alter the number of individuals engaged in any given phase of the breeding cycle at any given time and predict the numbers of new adults at the season’s end.

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We acknowledge the Pesticides Safety Directorate, Department for Food and Rural Affairs, UK for funding the workshop on long-term risk assessment.

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Correspondence to D.R. CROCKER.

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ROELOFS, W., CROCKER, D., SHORE, R. et al. Case Study Part 2: Probabilistic Modelling of Long-term Effects of Pesticides on Individual Breeding Success in Birds and Mammals. Ecotoxicology 14, 895–923 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10646-005-0035-3

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  • probabilistic risk assessment
  • populations
  • skylark
  • wood mouse