De Economist

, Volume 165, Issue 3, pp 271–294 | Cite as

Potential Economic Effects of TTIP for the Netherlands

Article
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Abstract

The transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP) is a comprehensive preferential trade agreement that is expected to significantly increase EU–US bilateral trade and investments. Negotiations are ongoing, so we use a scenario analysis to estimate the potential effects of TTIP under likely negotiated outcomes. In our main scenario, we assume a final trade deal where current tariffs are eliminated and non-tariff barriers are significantly reduced. We simulate the potential economic effects of TTIP using a CGE model. We find that US-Dutch bilateral trade doubles and this is translated into a positive but moderate effect on Dutch income of 1.7%.

Keywords

TTIP Preferential trade agreements CGE models 

JEL Classification

F13 F17 C68 
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Notes

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Joseph Francois and Miriam Manchin for providing me with the STATA code for the NTB estimations; Albert van der Horst, Clemens Kool and Gerdien Meijerink for valuable comments, and Emelie Walraven for research assistance. The paper also benefited greatly from the the revisions required by two anonymous referees and the editor Casper van Ewijk.

Supplementary material

10645_2017_9293_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (324 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (pdf 323 KB)

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy AnalysisThe HagueThe Netherlands

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